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Sorghum in Kouremalé

Koulikoro, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 20% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

178–242

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

166–254

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 178 and 242 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 166 and 254 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Kouremalé: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 178 and 242 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 166 and 254 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 196–225 206 182–243 265 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 185–236 206 166–257 267 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 178–242 206 153–250 272 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 171–260 205 151–330 247 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 166–254 200 140–281 241 –
Price history (116 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026205
Jul 2026205
Jun 2026205
May 2026205
Apr 2026205
Mar 2026205
Feb 2026205
Jan 2026205
Dec 2025221
Oct 2025225
Sept 2025225
Aug 2025225
Jul 2025225
Jun 2025225
May 2025225
Apr 2025225
Mar 2025231
Feb 2025225
Jan 2025231
Dec 2024250
Nov 2024250
Oct 2024250
Sept 2024250
Aug 2024250
Jul 2024250
Jun 2024250
May 2024250
Apr 2024250
Mar 2024250
Jan 2024250
Nov 2023306
Oct 2023325
Sept 2023325
Aug 2023325
Jul 2023325
Jun 2023325
May 2023325
Apr 2023325
Mar 2023255
Feb 2023255
Dec 2022303
Nov 2022350
Oct 2022350
Sept 2022350
Aug 2022350
Jul 2022300
Jun 2022273
May 2022229
Apr 2022215
Mar 2022215
Feb 2022215
Jan 2022239
Dec 2021263
Nov 2021273
Oct 2021258
Sept 2021250
Aug 2021230
Jul 2021200
Jun 2021200
May 2021200
Apr 2021200
Mar 2021180
Feb 2021169
Jan 2021200
Dec 2020200
Nov 2020200
Oct 2020200
Sept 2020200
Aug 2020200
Jul 2020219
Jun 2020210
May 2020200
Apr 2020206
Mar 2020205
Feb 2020216
Jan 2020216
Dec 2019200
Aug 2018250
Jul 2018250
Jun 2018250
May 2018250
Apr 2018250
Mar 2018250
Feb 2018250
Jan 2018250
Dec 2017250
Nov 2017250
Oct 2017260
Sept 2017250
Aug 2017212
Jul 2017200
Jun 2017225
May 2017200
Apr 2017200
Mar 2017200
Feb 2017238
Jan 2017235
Dec 2016200
Nov 2016200
Oct 2016200
Sept 2016200
Aug 2016200
Jul 2016200
Jun 2016225
May 2016205
Apr 2016200
Mar 2016200
Feb 2016238
Jan 2016200
Dec 2015200
Nov 2015200
Oct 2015200
Aug 2015213
Jul 2015231
Jun 2015218
May 2015200

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-1812-65-retail-kg.