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Rice (local) in Kouremalé

Koulikoro, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 3% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

530–614

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

518–655

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

13%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 3% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 530 and 614 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 518 and 655 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 13%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Kouremalé: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 3% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 530 and 614 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 518 and 655 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 13%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 837); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 535–587 548 534–625 573 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 534–604 548 503–655 573 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 530–614 547 498–657 573 13%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 521–619 546 482–665 569 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 518–655 545 504–837 574 –
Price history (111 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026550
Jul 2026550
Jun 2026550
May 2026550
Apr 2026544
Mar 2026550
Feb 2026550
Jan 2026550
Dec 2025550
Oct 2025550
Sept 2025550
Aug 2025550
Jun 2025550
May 2025550
Apr 2025550
Mar 2025550
Feb 2025550
Jan 2025550
Dec 2024550
Nov 2024550
Oct 2024550
Sept 2024550
Aug 2024550
Jul 2024550
Jun 2024525
May 2024525
Apr 2024500
Mar 2024500
Jan 2024500
Nov 2023500
Oct 2023500
Sept 2023500
Aug 2023500
Jul 2023500
Jun 2023500
May 2023500
Apr 2023500
Mar 2023500
Feb 2023500
Dec 2022500
Nov 2022500
Oct 2022500
Sept 2022500
Aug 2022500
Jul 2022485
Jun 2022475
May 2022475
Apr 2022475
Mar 2022475
Feb 2022475
Jan 2022475
Dec 2021475
Nov 2021475
Oct 2021475
Sept 2021475
Aug 2021445
Jul 2021400
Jun 2021400
May 2021400
Apr 2021400
Mar 2021400
Feb 2021400
Dec 2020400
Nov 2020400
Oct 2020400
Sept 2020400
Aug 2020400
Jul 2020400
Jun 2020400
May 2020400
Apr 2020400
Mar 2020400
Feb 2020400
Jan 2020400
Dec 2019400
Aug 2018450
Jul 2018450
Jun 2018443
May 2018406
Apr 2018400
Mar 2018400
Feb 2018400
Jan 2018400
Dec 2017400
Nov 2017400
Oct 2017400
Sept 2017400
Aug 2017400
Jul 2017400
Jun 2017400
May 2017400
Apr 2017400
Mar 2017400
Feb 2017400
Jan 2017400
Dec 2016400
Nov 2016400
Oct 2016400
Sept 2016400
Aug 2016400
Jul 2016400
Jun 2016400
May 2016400
Apr 2016400
Mar 2016425
Feb 2016400
Jan 2016400
Dec 2015400
Nov 2015400
Oct 2015400
May 2015400

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-1812-71-retail-kg.