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Millet in Kouremalé

Koulikoro, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 17% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

197–334

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

171–374

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 16% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 197 and 334 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 171 and 374 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Kouremalé: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 16% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 197 and 334 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 171 and 374 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 688); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 214–289 247 210–311 302 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 207–313 247 201–414 308 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 197–334 245 169–411 307 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 175–373 235 121–688 277 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 171–374 225 120–582 263 –
Price history (114 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026250
Jul 2026215
Jun 2026215
May 2026215
Apr 2026215
Mar 2026215
Feb 2026215
Jan 2026215
Dec 2025252
Oct 2025270
Sept 2025270
Aug 2025270
Jul 2025270
Jun 2025270
May 2025270
Apr 2025270
Mar 2025271
Feb 2025270
Jan 2025271
Dec 2024275
Nov 2024278
Oct 2024280
Sept 2024280
Aug 2024280
Jul 2024280
Jun 2024280
May 2024280
Apr 2024280
Mar 2024280
Jan 2024280
Nov 2023324
Oct 2023350
Sept 2023350
Aug 2023350
Jul 2023350
Jun 2023350
May 2023350
Apr 2023350
Mar 2023300
Feb 2023300
Dec 2022350
Nov 2022400
Oct 2022400
Sept 2022400
Aug 2022400
Jul 2022350
Jun 2022294
May 2022257
Apr 2022250
Mar 2022225
Feb 2022225
Jan 2022246
Dec 2021271
Nov 2021295
Oct 2021283
Sept 2021275
Aug 2021255
Jul 2021250
Jun 2021250
May 2021250
Apr 2021238
Mar 2021200
Feb 2021200
Jan 2021200
Dec 2020200
Nov 2020200
Oct 2020200
Sept 2020200
Aug 2020200
Jul 2020219
Jun 2020210
May 2020250
Apr 2020244
Mar 2020205
Feb 2020200
Jan 2020200
Dec 2019200
Aug 2018300
Jul 2018290
Jun 2018250
May 2018250
Apr 2018250
Mar 2018250
Feb 2018250
Jan 2018250
Dec 2017250
Nov 2017262
Oct 2017290
Sept 2017250
Aug 2017212
Jul 2017220
Jun 2017250
May 2017215
Apr 2017200
Mar 2017200
Feb 2017250
Jan 2017230
Dec 2016206
Nov 2016200
Oct 2016200
Sept 2016200
Aug 2016225
Jul 2016200
Jun 2016200
May 2016200
Apr 2016200
Mar 2016200
Jan 2016218
Dec 2015217
Nov 2015250
Oct 2015250
Aug 2015217
Jun 2015250
May 2015200

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-1812-73-retail-kg.