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Food basket in Kouremalé

Koulikoro, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,368–4,007

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,053–4,492

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,000 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,368 and 4,007 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,053 and 4,492 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Kouremalé: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,000 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,368 and 4,007 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,053 and 4,492 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 8,255); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,568–3,463 2,959 2,518–3,728
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,486–3,761 2,959 2,416–4,973
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,368–4,007 2,936 2,033–4,928
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,105–4,476 2,816 1,451–8,255
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,053–4,492 2,704 1,438–6,978
Cost history (114 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20263,000
Jul 20262,580
Jun 20262,580
May 20262,580
Apr 20262,580
Mar 20262,580
Feb 20262,580
Jan 20262,580
Dec 20253,024
Oct 20253,240
Sept 20253,240
Aug 20253,240
Jul 20253,240
Jun 20253,240
May 20253,240
Apr 20253,240
Mar 20253,252
Feb 20253,240
Jan 20253,252
Dec 20243,300
Nov 20243,336
Oct 20243,360
Sept 20243,360
Aug 20243,360
Jul 20243,360
Jun 20243,360
May 20243,360
Apr 20243,360
Mar 20243,360
Jan 20243,360
Nov 20233,888
Oct 20234,200
Sept 20234,200
Aug 20234,200
Jul 20234,200
Jun 20234,200
May 20234,200
Apr 20234,200
Mar 20233,600
Feb 20233,600
Dec 20224,200
Nov 20224,800
Oct 20224,800
Sept 20224,800
Aug 20224,800
Jul 20224,200
Jun 20223,528
May 20223,084
Apr 20223,000
Mar 20222,700
Feb 20222,700
Jan 20222,952
Dec 20213,252
Nov 20213,540
Oct 20213,396
Sept 20213,300
Aug 20213,060
Jul 20213,000
Jun 20213,000
May 20213,000
Apr 20212,850
Mar 20212,400
Feb 20212,400
Jan 20212,400
Dec 20202,400
Nov 20202,400
Oct 20202,400
Sept 20202,400
Aug 20202,400
Jul 20202,628
Jun 20202,520
May 20203,000
Apr 20202,928
Mar 20202,460
Feb 20202,400
Jan 20202,400
Dec 20192,400
Aug 20183,600
Jul 20183,480
Jun 20183,000
May 20183,000
Apr 20183,000
Mar 20183,000
Feb 20183,000
Jan 20183,000
Dec 20173,000
Nov 20173,144
Oct 20173,480
Sept 20173,000
Aug 20172,544
Jul 20172,640
Jun 20173,000
May 20172,580
Apr 20172,400
Mar 20172,400
Feb 20173,000
Jan 20172,760
Dec 20162,472
Nov 20162,400
Oct 20162,400
Sept 20162,400
Aug 20162,700
Jul 20162,400
Jun 20162,400
May 20162,400
Apr 20162,400
Mar 20162,400
Jan 20162,616
Dec 20152,604
Nov 20153,000
Oct 20153,000
Aug 20152,604
Jun 20153,000
May 20152,400

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189