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Maize in Ouelessebougou

Koulikoro, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 18% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

171–277

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

163–291

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 18% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 171 and 277 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 163 and 291 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Ouelessebougou: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 18% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 171 and 277 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 163 and 291 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 427); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 191–251 222 161–276 298 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 181–269 220 153–319 315 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 171–277 217 150–368 290 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 161–294 207 146–427 271 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 163–291 215 132–337 276 –
Price history (127 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026225
Jul 2026225
Jun 2026225
May 2026225
Apr 2026225
Mar 2026225
Feb 2026225
Jan 2026225
Dec 2025206
Oct 2025220
Sept 2025250
Aug 2025255
Jul 2025275
Jun 2025275
May 2025275
Apr 2025275
Mar 2025275
Feb 2025275
Jan 2025275
Dec 2024288
Nov 2024280
Oct 2024300
Sept 2024300
Aug 2024300
Jul 2024250
Jun 2024250
May 2024225
Apr 2024225
Mar 2024225
Jan 2024225
Nov 2023244
Oct 2023250
Sept 2023250
Aug 2023250
Jul 2023250
Jun 2023250
May 2023250
Apr 2023250
Mar 2023275
Dec 2022275
Nov 2022300
Oct 2022325
Sept 2022400
Aug 2022300
Jul 2022300
Jun 2022300
May 2022300
Apr 2022300
Mar 2022250
Feb 2022250
Jan 2022250
Dec 2021225
Nov 2021225
Oct 2021225
Sept 2021225
Aug 2021219
Jul 2021200
Jun 2021200
May 2021175
Apr 2021175
Mar 2021175
Feb 2021169
Jan 2021150
Dec 2020150
Nov 2020150
Oct 2020150
Sept 2020150
Aug 2020150
Jul 2020150
Jun 2020150
May 2020150
Apr 2020150
Mar 2020150
Feb 2020150
Jan 2020150
Dec 2019150
Nov 2019150
Sept 2019125
Aug 2019125
Jul 2019150
Jun 2019150
May 2019150
Mar 2019150
Feb 2019125
Jan 2019220
Nov 2018220
Oct 2018375
Sept 2018220
Aug 2018200
Jul 2018200
Jun 2018200
May 2018200
Apr 2018175
Mar 2018175
Feb 2018175
Jan 2018175
Dec 2017175
Nov 2017175
Oct 2017175
Sept 2017175
Aug 2017400Data error
Jul 2017175
Jun 2017175
May 2017175
Apr 2017175
Mar 2017150
Feb 2017150
Jan 2017150
Dec 2016150
Nov 2016150
Oct 2016150
Sept 2016175
Aug 2016175
Jul 2016175
Jun 2016175
May 2016175
Apr 2016175
Mar 2016175
Feb 2016175
Jan 2016150
Dec 2015131
Nov 2015147
Oct 2015173
Aug 2015150
Jul 2015175
Jun 2015156
May 2015150

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-1813-51-retail-kg.