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Rice (imported) in Ouelessebougou

Koulikoro, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Stress August 2026: 5% above the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

540–657

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

518–734

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

14%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 5% above the usual level for that time of year (stress). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 540 and 657 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 518 and 734 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 14%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Ouelessebougou: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 5% above the usual level for that time of year (stress). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 540 and 657 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 518 and 734 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 14%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 1,047); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 555–624 593 545–663 582 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 545–642 594 542–736 583 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 540–657 593 534–772 575 14%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 538–694 592 529–919 583 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 518–734 587 502–1,047 593 –
Price history (124 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026600
Jul 2026600
Jun 2026600
May 2026600
Apr 2026600
Mar 2026600
Feb 2026600
Jan 2026600
Dec 2025600
Oct 2025600
Sept 2025600
Aug 2025600
Jul 2025600
Jun 2025600
May 2025600
Apr 2025600
Mar 2025600
Feb 2025600
Jan 2025600
Dec 2024600
Nov 2024600
Oct 2024600
Sept 2024600
Aug 2024600
Jul 2024500
Jun 2024500
May 2024450
Apr 2024488
Mar 2024475
Jan 2024475
Nov 2023475
Oct 2023475
Sept 2023475
Aug 2023475
Jul 2023475
Jun 2023475
May 2023475
Apr 2023475
Mar 2023400
Dec 2022400
Nov 2022400
Oct 2022400
Sept 2022395
Aug 2022375
Jul 2022375
Jun 2022375
May 2022375
Apr 2022375
Mar 2022375
Feb 2022375
Jan 2022400
Dec 2021400
Nov 2021400
Oct 2021400
Sept 2021400
Aug 2021400
Jul 2021400
Jun 2021400
May 2021400
Apr 2021400
Mar 2021400
Feb 2021400
Jan 2021400
Dec 2020400
Nov 2020400
Oct 2020395
Sept 2020388
Aug 2020375
Jul 2020375
Jun 2020375
May 2020375
Apr 2020375
Mar 2020375
Feb 2020375
Jan 2020400
Dec 2019375
Nov 2019375
Sept 2019400
Aug 2019375
Jul 2019350
Jun 2019350
May 2019375
Mar 2019375
Feb 2019350
Jan 2019375
Nov 2018375
Oct 2018375
Sept 2018375
Aug 2018375
Jul 2018400
Jun 2018400
May 2018375
Apr 2018400
Mar 2018400
Feb 2018375
Jan 2018375
Dec 2017400
Nov 2017400
Oct 2017400
Sept 2017400
Aug 2017400
Jul 2017400
Jun 2017400
May 2017394
Apr 2017375
Mar 2017375
Feb 2017375
Jan 2017363
Dec 2016350
Nov 2016350
Oct 2016350
Sept 2016350
Aug 2016350
Jul 2016350
Jun 2016350
May 2016356
Apr 2016375
Mar 2016375
Feb 2016375
Jan 2016350
Dec 2015375
Nov 2015350
Oct 2015375
May 2015356

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-1813-64-retail-kg.