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Sorghum in Ouelessebougou

Koulikoro, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 22% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

183–282

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

157–315

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 22% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 183 and 282 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 157 and 315 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Ouelessebougou: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 22% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 183 and 282 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 157 and 315 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 207–259 225 199–300 321 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 197–265 225 181–308 309 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 183–282 223 147–375 299 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 168–295 215 126–389 285 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 157–315 222 107–402 286 –
Price history (127 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026225
Jul 2026225
Jun 2026225
May 2026225
Apr 2026225
Mar 2026200
Feb 2026200
Jan 2026200
Dec 2025200
Oct 2025250
Sept 2025250
Aug 2025260
Jul 2025300
Jun 2025300
May 2025300
Apr 2025300
Mar 2025300
Feb 2025300
Jan 2025300
Dec 2024300
Nov 2024340
Oct 2024350
Sept 2024350
Aug 2024350
Jul 2024300
Jun 2024288
May 2024250
Apr 2024250
Mar 2024250
Jan 2024250
Nov 2023250
Oct 2023250
Sept 2023250
Aug 2023250
Jul 2023250
Jun 2023250
May 2023250
Apr 2023250
Mar 2023250
Dec 2022300
Nov 2022300
Oct 2022350
Sept 2022400
Aug 2022350
Jul 2022330
Jun 2022300
May 2022300
Apr 2022300
Mar 2022250
Feb 2022250
Jan 2022250
Dec 2021250
Nov 2021225
Oct 2021200
Sept 2021200
Aug 2021200
Jul 2021200
Jun 2021200
May 2021200
Apr 2021200
Mar 2021200
Feb 2021200
Jan 2021200
Dec 2020200
Nov 2020200
Oct 2020200
Sept 2020200
Aug 2020200
Jul 2020200
Jun 2020200
May 2020200
Apr 2020200
Mar 2020181
Feb 2020162
Jan 2020200
Dec 2019200
Nov 2019150
Sept 2019250
Aug 2019135
Jul 2019200
Jun 2019200
May 2019200
Mar 2019200
Feb 2019135
Jan 2019250
Nov 2018250
Oct 2018250
Sept 2018250
Aug 2018225
Jul 2018206
Jun 2018200
May 2018200
Apr 2018200
Mar 2018200
Feb 2018200
Jan 2018181
Dec 2017185
Nov 2017200
Oct 2017200
Sept 2017200
Aug 2017200
Jul 2017200
Jun 2017200
May 2017175
Apr 2017175
Mar 2017150
Feb 2017150
Jan 2017150
Dec 2016150
Nov 2016156
Oct 2016158
Sept 2016175
Aug 2016175
Jul 2016175
Jun 2016175
May 2016175
Apr 2016175
Mar 2016175
Feb 2016175
Jan 2016158
Dec 2015138
Nov 2015150
Oct 2015180
Aug 2015175
Jul 2015175
Jun 2015175
May 2015168

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-1813-65-retail-kg.