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Rice (local) in Ouelessebougou

Koulikoro, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 2% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

518–606

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

502–644

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 2% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 518 and 606 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 502 and 644 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Ouelessebougou: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 2% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 518 and 606 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 502 and 644 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 806); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 535–577 547 522–604 579 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 529–594 548 484–642 583 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 518–606 549 431–673 584 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 512–633 547 437–784 580 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 502–644 545 448–806 585 –
Price history (110 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026550
Jul 2026550
Jun 2026550
May 2026550
Apr 2026550
Mar 2026550
Feb 2026550
Jan 2026550
Dec 2025550
Oct 2025550
Sept 2025550
Aug 2025560
Jun 2025600
May 2025600
Apr 2025600
Mar 2025600
Feb 2025600
Jan 2025600
Dec 2024600
Nov 2024600
Oct 2024600
Sept 2024600
Aug 2024550
Jul 2024550
Jun 2024550
May 2024500
Apr 2024500
Mar 2024500
Jan 2024500
Nov 2023500
Oct 2023500
Sept 2023500
Aug 2023500
Jul 2023475
Jun 2023430
May 2023500
Apr 2023500
Mar 2023500
Dec 2022500
Nov 2022500
Oct 2022500
Sept 2022500
Aug 2022450
Jul 2022450
Jun 2022450
May 2022450
Apr 2022450
Mar 2022450
Feb 2022450
Jan 2022450
Dec 2021450
Nov 2021450
Oct 2021450
Sept 2021425
Aug 2021400
Jul 2021400
Jun 2021400
May 2021400
Apr 2021400
Mar 2021400
Feb 2021400
Dec 2020400
Nov 2020400
Oct 2020400
Sept 2020400
Aug 2020400
Jul 2020400
Jun 2020400
May 2020400
Apr 2020400
Mar 2020400
Feb 2020400
Jan 2020400
Dec 2019400
Aug 2018450
Jul 2018450
Jun 2018450
May 2018425
Apr 2018400
Mar 2018400
Feb 2018400
Jan 2018400
Dec 2017400
Nov 2017400
Oct 2017400
Sept 2017400
Aug 2017400
Jul 2017400
Jun 2017400
May 2017400
Apr 2017400
Mar 2017400
Feb 2017400
Jan 2017400
Dec 2016400
Nov 2016400
Oct 2016400
Sept 2016400
Aug 2016400
Jul 2016400
Jun 2016400
May 2016400
Apr 2016400
Mar 2016400
Feb 2016400
Jan 2016400
Dec 2015400
Nov 2015400
Oct 2015400
May 2015381

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-1813-71-retail-kg.