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Millet in Ouelessebougou

Koulikoro, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 29% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

190–340

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

170–339

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 29% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 10% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 190 and 340 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 170 and 339 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Ouelessebougou: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 29% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 10% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 190 and 340 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 170 and 339 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400500202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 744); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 216–279 226 174–362 349 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 199–307 226 157–455 344 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 190–340 228 129–519 338 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 174–389 227 110–744 340 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 170–339 227 106–398 331 –
Price history (124 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026225
Jul 2026250
Jun 2026250
May 2026250
Apr 2026250
Mar 2026250
Feb 2026250
Jan 2026250
Oct 2025320
Sept 2025350
Aug 2025350
Jul 2025350
Jun 2025350
May 2025350
Apr 2025350
Mar 2025350
Feb 2025350
Jan 2025350
Nov 2024370
Oct 2024375
Sept 2024375
Aug 2024375
Jul 2024325
Jun 2024313
May 2024300
Apr 2024300
Mar 2024300
Jan 2024300
Nov 2023300
Oct 2023300
Sept 2023300
Aug 2023300
Jul 2023300
Jun 2023350
May 2023363
Apr 2023375
Mar 2023375
Dec 2022375
Nov 2022400
Oct 2022425
Sept 2022450
Aug 2022400
Jul 2022380
Jun 2022350
May 2022350
Apr 2022335
Mar 2022300
Feb 2022300
Jan 2022300
Nov 2021225
Oct 2021200
Sept 2021200
Aug 2021200
Jul 2021200
Jun 2021200
May 2021200
Apr 2021200
Mar 2021200
Feb 2021200
Jan 2021200
Dec 2020200
Nov 2020200
Oct 2020200
Sept 2020200
Aug 2020200
Jul 2020200
Jun 2020200
May 2020200
Apr 2020200
Mar 2020200
Feb 2020200
Jan 2020200
Dec 2019200
Nov 2019200
Sept 2019250
Aug 2019135
Jul 2019200
Jun 2019200
May 2019200
Mar 2019200
Feb 2019175
Jan 2019250
Nov 2018250
Oct 2018250
Sept 2018250
Aug 2018300
Jul 2018300
Jun 2018300
May 2018300
Apr 2018300
Mar 2018300
Feb 2018300
Jan 2018300
Dec 2017300
Nov 2017250
Oct 2017250
Sept 2017250
Aug 2017250
Jul 2017225
Jun 2017225
May 2017225
Apr 2017225
Mar 2017200
Feb 2017200
Jan 2017200
Dec 2016200
Nov 2016200
Oct 2016200
Sept 2016200
Aug 2016200
Jul 2016200
Jun 2016200
May 2016213
Apr 2016200
Mar 2016200
Feb 2016200
Jan 2016200
Dec 2015219
Nov 2015225
Oct 2015250
Aug 2015225
Jul 2015245
Jun 2015231
May 2015213

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-1813-73-retail-kg.