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Maize in Kolokani

Koulikoro, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 21% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

157–276

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

154–299

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 21% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 10% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 157 and 276 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 154 and 299 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Kolokani: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 21% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 10% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 157 and 276 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 154 and 299 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 464); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 195–254 221 176–284 300 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 182–272 219 161–315 326 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 157–276 204 138–395 269 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 155–293 198 138–464 262 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 154–299 202 131–414 262 –
Price history (127 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026225
Jul 2026225
Jun 2026225
May 2026250
Apr 2026250
Mar 2026250
Feb 2026250
Jan 2026225
Dec 2025225
Oct 2025245
Sept 2025275
Aug 2025275
Jul 2025275
Jun 2025275
May 2025275
Apr 2025255
Mar 2025250
Feb 2025250
Jan 2025250
Dec 2024250
Nov 2024250
Oct 2024270
Sept 2024300
Aug 2024283
Jul 2024275
Jun 2024250
May 2024250
Apr 2024250
Mar 2024250
Jan 2024250
Nov 2023250
Oct 2023250
Sept 2023250
Aug 2023250
Jul 2023250
Jun 2023225
May 2023250
Apr 2023250
Mar 2023250
Feb 2023250
Dec 2022200
Nov 2022210
Oct 2022288
Sept 2022338
Aug 2022350
Jul 2022350
Jun 2022350
May 2022350
Apr 2022338
Mar 2022265
Feb 2022250
Jan 2022231
Dec 2021220
Nov 2021200
Oct 2021200
Sept 2021200
Aug 2021200
Jul 2021200
Jun 2021200
May 2021200
Apr 2021200
Mar 2021195
Feb 2021169
Jan 2021150
Dec 2020150
Nov 2020156
Oct 2020175
Sept 2020170
Aug 2020150
Jul 2020150
Jun 2020150
May 2020150
Apr 2020150
Mar 2020150
Feb 2020150
Jan 2020135
Dec 2019125
Sept 2019125
Aug 2019125
Jul 2019125
Jun 2019140
May 2019130
Mar 2019120
Feb 2019115
Jan 2019115
Nov 2018115
Oct 2018400
Sept 2018200
Aug 2018200
Jul 2018200
Jun 2018200
May 2018200
Apr 2018175
Mar 2018175
Feb 2018175
Jan 2018175
Dec 2017175
Nov 2017175
Oct 2017175
Sept 2017175
Aug 2017400Data error
Jul 2017175
Jun 2017175
May 2017175
Apr 2017156
Mar 2017150
Feb 2017150
Jan 2017150
Dec 2016150
Nov 2016150
Oct 2016150
Sept 2016150
Aug 2016150
Jul 2016150
Jun 2016150
May 2016150
Apr 2016150
Mar 2016150
Feb 2016150
Jan 2016125
Dec 2015131
Nov 2015125
Oct 2015150
Aug 2015193
Jul 2015181
Jun 2015156
May 2015150

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-1814-51-retail-kg.