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Sorghum in Kolokani

Koulikoro, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 29% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

149–282

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

128–321

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

7%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 29% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 149 and 282 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 128 and 321 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Kolokani: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 29% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 149 and 282 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 128 and 321 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 679); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 187–230 202 156–255 298 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 172–255 202 144–384 302 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 149–282 191 119–513 255 7%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 145–315 190 119–679 257 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 128–321 180 84–596 232 –
Price history (128 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026200
Jul 2026200
Jun 2026200
May 2026200
Apr 2026200
Mar 2026200
Feb 2026200
Jan 2026200
Dec 2025200
Oct 2025235
Sept 2025250
Aug 2025250
Jul 2025255
Jun 2025275
May 2025275
Apr 2025220
Mar 2025215
Feb 2025200
Jan 2025215
Dec 2024275
Nov 2024331
Oct 2024350
Sept 2024350
Aug 2024317
Jul 2024300
Jun 2024250
May 2024250
Apr 2024250
Mar 2024250
Jan 2024200
Nov 2023295
Oct 2023294
Sept 2023300
Aug 2023295
Jul 2023275
Jun 2023250
May 2023250
Apr 2023250
Mar 2023250
Feb 2023250
Dec 2022250
Nov 2022250
Oct 2022363
Sept 2022400
Aug 2022400
Jul 2022400
Jun 2022390
May 2022350
Apr 2022350
Mar 2022270
Feb 2022250
Jan 2022225
Dec 2021200
Nov 2021200
Oct 2021200
Sept 2021200
Aug 2021194
Jul 2021175
Jun 2021175
May 2021175
Apr 2021175
Mar 2021175
Feb 2021169
Jan 2021150
Dec 2020165
Nov 2020181
Oct 2020200
Sept 2020195
Aug 2020175
Jul 2020175
Jun 2020175
May 2020175
Apr 2020160
Mar 2020150
Feb 2020150
Jan 2020150
Dec 2019187
Nov 2019100
Sept 2019150
Aug 2019140
Jul 2019150
Jun 2019150
May 2019150
Mar 2019150
Feb 2019130
Jan 2019150
Nov 2018150
Oct 2018225
Sept 2018240
Aug 2018250
Jul 2018237
Jun 2018225
May 2018225
Apr 2018212
Mar 2018200
Feb 2018200
Jan 2018200
Dec 2017200
Nov 2017200
Oct 2017200
Sept 2017212
Aug 2017225
Jul 2017200
Jun 2017200
May 2017181
Apr 2017175
Mar 2017175
Feb 2017175
Jan 2017175
Dec 2016175
Nov 2016175
Oct 2016175
Sept 2016175
Aug 2016150
Jul 2016175
Jun 2016175
May 2016150
Apr 2016150
Mar 2016150
Feb 2016150
Jan 2016150
Dec 2015149
Nov 2015155
Oct 2015183
Aug 2015203
Jul 2015204
Jun 2015196
May 2015175

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-1814-65-retail-kg.