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Maize in Yanfolila

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 38% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

94.1–164

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

89.9–190

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 38% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 11% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 94.1 and 164 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 89.9 and 190 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Yanfolila: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 38% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 11% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 94.1 and 164 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 89.9 and 190 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 313); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 112–157 125 101–173 227 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 107–163 126 90.7–189 246 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 94.1–164 117 92.2–232 182 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 90.6–177 113 85.3–290 176 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 89.9–190 113 84.4–313 173 –
Price history (122 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026125
Jun 2026126
May 2026140
Apr 2026150
Mar 2026150
Feb 2026150
Jan 2026150
Dec 2025150
Oct 2025155
Sept 2025170
Aug 2025171
Jun 2025175
May 2025196
Apr 2025210
Mar 2025175
Feb 2025188
Jan 2025175
Dec 2024148
Nov 2024134
Oct 2024250
Sept 2024230
Aug 2024210
Jul 2024198
Jun 2024176
May 2024175
Apr 2024175
Mar 2024175
Jan 2024143
Nov 2023169
Oct 2023184
Sept 2023193
Aug 2023184
Jul 2023163
Jun 2023156
May 2023220
Apr 2023213
Mar 2023225
Dec 2022200
Nov 2022186
Oct 2022240
Sept 2022290
Aug 2022290
Jul 2022290
Jun 2022290
May 2022278
Apr 2022241
Mar 2022221
Feb 2022205
Jan 2022190
Dec 2021183
Nov 2021191
Oct 2021208
Sept 2021220
Aug 2021181
Jul 2021167
Jun 2021178
May 2021175
Apr 2021175
Mar 2021173
Feb 2021145
Jan 2021121
Dec 2020120
Nov 2020143
Oct 2020148
Sept 2020126
Aug 2020111
Jul 2020108
Jun 2020103
May 2020104
Apr 2020106
Mar 2020104
Feb 202097
Jan 202092
Dec 201990
Nov 201990
Jul 201980
Jun 2019130
May 2019130
Mar 2019130
Feb 2019110
Jan 2019125
Nov 2018125
Oct 2018400
Sept 2018165
Jul 2018170
Jun 2018165
May 2018160
Apr 2018150
Mar 2018140
Feb 2018126
Jan 2018120
Dec 2017120
Nov 2017118
Oct 2017129
Sept 2017131
Aug 2017400Data error
Jul 2017115
Jun 2017115
May 2017115
Apr 2017110
Mar 2017109
Feb 2017110
Jan 2017109
Dec 2016110
Nov 2016114
Oct 2016127
Sept 2016130
Aug 2016129
Jul 2016130
Jun 2016126
May 2016122
Apr 2016120
Mar 2016118
Feb 2016118
Jan 2016114
Dec 2015110
Nov 2015104
Oct 2015143
Aug 2015143
Jul 2015142
Jun 2015142
May 2015156

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-1815-51-retail-kg.