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Sorghum in Yanfolila

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 23% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

236–451

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

208–501

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

9%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 23% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 236 and 451 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 208 and 501 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 9%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Yanfolila: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 23% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 236 and 451 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 208 and 501 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 9%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 843); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 286–354 303 241–433 408 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 258–402 305 184–555 419 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 236–451 306 155–834 383 9%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 219–472 306 139–838 392 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 208–501 302 123–843 371 –
Price history (109 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026300
Jul 2026300
Jun 2026300
May 2026300
Apr 2026300
Jan 2026300
Dec 2025300
Oct 2025300
Sept 2025300
Aug 2025300
Jun 2025300
May 2025338
Apr 2025370
Jan 2025400
Dec 2024400
Nov 2024400
Oct 2024400
Sept 2024400
Aug 2024400
Jul 2024400
Jun 2024400
May 2024400
Apr 2024400
Mar 2024400
Jan 2024400
Nov 2023400
Oct 2023400
Sept 2023388
Aug 2023400
Jul 2023400
Jun 2023400
May 2023400
Apr 2023245
Mar 2023250
Dec 2022400
Nov 2022500
Oct 2022500
Sept 2022500
Aug 2022440
Jul 2022300
Jun 2022300
May 2022300
Apr 2022263
Mar 2022250
Feb 2022250
Jan 2022250
Dec 2021250
Nov 2021250
Oct 2021250
Sept 2021250
Aug 2021250
Jul 2021250
Jun 2021250
May 2021250
Apr 2021250
Jan 2021250
Dec 2020250
Nov 2020250
Oct 2020250
Sept 2020250
Aug 2020250
Jul 2020250
Jun 2020250
May 2020250
Feb 2020250
Jan 2020250
Dec 2019270
Nov 2019125
Jul 2019250
Jun 2019250
May 2019275
Feb 2019180
Jan 2019200
Nov 2018200
Oct 2018300
Sept 2018250
Jul 2018270
Jun 2018250
May 2018250
Apr 2018250
Jan 2018250
Dec 2017250
Nov 2017300
Oct 2017260
Sept 2017250
Aug 2017257
Jul 2017225
Jun 2017200
May 2017200
Mar 2017200
Feb 2017200
Jan 2017220
Dec 2016250
Nov 2016250
Oct 2016250
Sept 2016250
Aug 2016250
Jul 2016250
Jun 2016250
May 2016235
Feb 2016181
Jan 2016225
Dec 2015230
Nov 2015200
Oct 2015200
Aug 2015250
Jul 2015238
Jun 2015180
May 2015233

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-1815-65-retail-kg.