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Millet in Yanfolila

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal July 2026: 6% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

319–553

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

283–677

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

18%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In July 2026 the price was 6% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 319 and 553 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 283 and 677 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 18%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Yanfolila: XOF per KGIn July 2026 the price was 6% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 319 and 553 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 283 and 677 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 18%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 1,278); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 356–492 400 328–574 470 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 346–530 398 318–730 476 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 319–553 395 238–741 426 18%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 318–577 398 258–745 463 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 283–677 389 188–1,278 416 –
Price history (120 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Jul 2026400
Jun 2026400
May 2026400
Apr 2026400
Mar 2026400
Feb 2026400
Jan 2026400
Dec 2025400
Oct 2025400
Sept 2025400
Aug 2025400
Jun 2025400
May 2025363
Apr 2025370
Mar 2025400
Feb 2025400
Jan 2025400
Dec 2024400
Nov 2024400
Oct 2024400
Sept 2024400
Aug 2024400
Jul 2024400
Jun 2024400
May 2024400
Apr 2024400
Mar 2024400
Jan 2024400
Nov 2023400
Oct 2023410
Sept 2023363
Aug 2023300
Jul 2023300
Jun 2023325
May 2023400
Apr 2023260
Mar 2023500
Dec 2022500
Nov 2022500
Oct 2022500
Sept 2022500
Aug 2022460
Jul 2022400
Jun 2022400
May 2022380
Apr 2022300
Mar 2022300
Feb 2022300
Jan 2022300
Dec 2021300
Nov 2021300
Oct 2021300
Sept 2021300
Aug 2021290
Jul 2021250
Jun 2021250
May 2021300
Apr 2021300
Mar 2021300
Feb 2021231
Jan 2021225
Dec 2020300
Nov 2020300
Oct 2020300
Sept 2020300
Aug 2020275
Jul 2020288
Jun 2020250
May 2020250
Apr 2020250
Mar 2020250
Feb 2020250
Jan 2020250
Dec 2019270
Nov 2019160
Jul 2019250
Jun 2019250
May 2019300
Mar 2019275
Feb 2019150
Jan 2019200
Nov 2018200
Oct 2018300
Sept 2018300
Jul 2018300
Jun 2018300
May 2018300
Apr 2018250
Mar 2018250
Feb 2018250
Jan 2018250
Dec 2017250
Oct 2017250
Sept 2017250
Aug 2017250
Jul 2017250
Jun 2017250
May 2017250
Apr 2017250
Mar 2017250
Feb 2017250
Jan 2017250
Dec 2016250
Nov 2016250
Oct 2016250
Sept 2016250
Aug 2016250
Jul 2016250
Jun 2016250
May 2016250
Apr 2016250
Mar 2016235
Feb 2016206
Jan 2016225
Dec 2015250
Nov 2015250
Oct 2015250
Jul 2015311
Jun 2015333
May 2015255

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: July 2026. Series id: mali-1815-73-retail-kg.