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Food basket in Yanfolila

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

3,827–6,637

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

3,401–8,127

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 4,800 XOF in July 2026. No complete basket cost has been published for this market since July 2026: November 2026 is 4 months after it, so the range is wider than usual. November 2026: most likely between 3,827 and 6,637 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 3,401 and 8,127 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Yanfolila: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 4,800 XOF in July 2026. No complete basket cost has been published for this market since July 2026: November 2026 is 4 months after it, so the range is wider than usual. November 2026: most likely between 3,827 and 6,637 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 3,401 and 8,127 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,5005,0007,50010,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 15,331); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 4,270–5,908 4,804 3,942–6,882
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 4,149–6,363 4,776 3,818–8,757
Nov 2026
Next month		 3,827–6,637 4,742 2,862–8,897
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 3,810–6,924 4,780 3,091–8,937
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 3,401–8,127 4,673 2,258–15,331
Cost history (120 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Jul 20264,800
Jun 20264,800
May 20264,800
Apr 20264,800
Mar 20264,800
Feb 20264,800
Jan 20264,800
Dec 20254,800
Oct 20254,800
Sept 20254,800
Aug 20254,800
Jun 20254,800
May 20254,356
Apr 20254,440
Mar 20254,800
Feb 20254,800
Jan 20254,800
Dec 20244,800
Nov 20244,800
Oct 20244,800
Sept 20244,800
Aug 20244,800
Jul 20244,800
Jun 20244,800
May 20244,800
Apr 20244,800
Mar 20244,800
Jan 20244,800
Nov 20234,800
Oct 20234,920
Sept 20234,356
Aug 20233,600
Jul 20233,600
Jun 20233,900
May 20234,800
Apr 20233,120
Mar 20236,000
Dec 20226,000
Nov 20226,000
Oct 20226,000
Sept 20226,000
Aug 20225,520
Jul 20224,800
Jun 20224,800
May 20224,560
Apr 20223,600
Mar 20223,600
Feb 20223,600
Jan 20223,600
Dec 20213,600
Nov 20213,600
Oct 20213,600
Sept 20213,600
Aug 20213,480
Jul 20213,000
Jun 20213,000
May 20213,600
Apr 20213,600
Mar 20213,600
Feb 20212,772
Jan 20212,700
Dec 20203,600
Nov 20203,600
Oct 20203,600
Sept 20203,600
Aug 20203,300
Jul 20203,456
Jun 20203,000
May 20203,000
Apr 20203,000
Mar 20203,000
Feb 20203,000
Jan 20203,000
Dec 20193,240
Nov 20191,920
Jul 20193,000
Jun 20193,000
May 20193,600
Mar 20193,300
Feb 20191,800
Jan 20192,400
Nov 20182,400
Oct 20183,600
Sept 20183,600
Jul 20183,600
Jun 20183,600
May 20183,600
Apr 20183,000
Mar 20183,000
Feb 20183,000
Jan 20183,000
Dec 20173,000
Oct 20173,000
Sept 20173,000
Aug 20173,000
Jul 20173,000
Jun 20173,000
May 20173,000
Apr 20173,000
Mar 20173,000
Feb 20173,000
Jan 20173,000
Dec 20163,000
Nov 20163,000
Oct 20163,000
Sept 20163,000
Aug 20163,000
Jul 20163,000
Jun 20163,000
May 20163,000
Apr 20163,000
Mar 20162,820
Feb 20162,472
Jan 20162,700
Dec 20153,000
Nov 20153,000
Oct 20153,000
Jul 20153,732
Jun 20153,996
May 20153,060

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189