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Maize in Yorosso

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 26% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

115–214

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

109–252

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 26% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 13% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 115 and 214 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 109 and 252 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Yorosso: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 26% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 13% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 58 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 115 and 214 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 109 and 252 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 456); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 144–191 166 129–221 242 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 126–198 158 105–256 217 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 115–214 148 77.9–309 203 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 110–238 144 77.2–456 203 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 109–252 146 78.6–442 201 –
Price history (127 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026170
Jun 2026150
May 2026150
Apr 2026150
Mar 2026150
Feb 2026150
Jan 2026175
Dec 2025194
Oct 2025200
Sept 2025200
Aug 2025190
Jun 2025200
May 2025200
Apr 2025206
Mar 2025200
Feb 2025206
Jan 2025200
Dec 2024205
Oct 2024213
Sept 2024260
Aug 2024275
Jul 2024253
Jun 2024198
May 2024188
Apr 2024185
Mar 2024178
Jan 2024175
Nov 2023175
Oct 2023185
Sept 2023225
Aug 2023206
Jul 2023200
Jun 2023213
May 2023225
Apr 2023225
Mar 2023250
Dec 2022200
Nov 2022200
Oct 2022200
Sept 2022300
Aug 2022313
Jul 2022315
Jun 2022306
May 2022288
Apr 2022270
Mar 2022250
Feb 2022250
Jan 2022230
Dec 2021213
Nov 2021200
Oct 2021169
Sept 2021175
Aug 2021169
Jul 2021165
Jun 2021160
May 2021160
Apr 2021175
Mar 2021156
Feb 2021150
Jan 2021130
Dec 2020118
Nov 2020122
Oct 2020125
Sept 2020125
Aug 2020125
Jul 2020125
Jun 2020125
May 2020125
Apr 2020125
Mar 2020116
Feb 2020100
Jan 2020100
Dec 201996
Nov 2019116
Oct 2019125
Sept 2019125
Aug 2019125
Jul 2019125
Jun 2019125
May 2019125
Apr 2019125
Mar 2019125
Feb 2019125
Jan 2019125
Dec 2018125
Nov 2018125
Oct 2018150
Sept 2018173
Aug 2018168
Jul 2018160
Jun 2018168
May 2018175
Apr 2018150
Mar 2018150
Feb 2018143
Jan 2018125
Dec 2017122
Nov 2017120
Oct 2017140
Sept 2017150
Aug 2017390Data error
Jul 2017150
Jun 2017150
May 2017150
Apr 2017150
Mar 2017144
Feb 2017125
Jan 2017125
Dec 2016125
Nov 2016125
Oct 2016144
Sept 2016150
Aug 2016150
Jul 2016150
Jun 2016150
May 2016150
Apr 2016150
Mar 2016144
Feb 2016125
Jan 2016125
Dec 2015125
Nov 2015131
Oct 2015134
Aug 2015125
Jul 2015131
Jun 2015120
May 2015108

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-1816-51-retail-kg.