Staple Signals Français

Home › Mali

Rice (imported) in Yorosso

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 6% below the usual level for that time of year.

Irregular reports. This market published a price in 6 of the last 12 months. Prices here can change more, for example through insecurity or road closures; the forecast range is wider accordingly. In past tests, the 80 % range for next month held in 81% of cases in markets that report irregularly, against 77% in markets that report regularly.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

461–552

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

453–587

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 6% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 461 and 552 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 453 and 587 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Yorosso: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 6% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 461 and 552 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 453 and 587 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 480–535 498 446–590 537 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 473–554 499 435–605 544 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 461–552 499 394–578 527 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 454–579 498 387–685 535 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 453–587 492 419–729 537 –
Price history (119 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026500
Jul 2026500
Jun 2026500
May 2026500
Oct 2025500
Sept 2025500
Aug 2025500
Jun 2025500
May 2025500
Apr 2025525
Mar 2025550
Feb 2025550
Jan 2025550
Dec 2024590
Oct 2024600
Sept 2024550
Aug 2024550
Jul 2024550
Jun 2024550
Apr 2024481
Mar 2024475
Jan 2024475
Nov 2023500
Oct 2023500
Sept 2023500
Aug 2023500
Jul 2023500
Jun 2023475
May 2023450
Apr 2023450
Mar 2023450
Dec 2022450
Nov 2022450
Oct 2022450
Sept 2022450
Aug 2022450
Jul 2022440
Jun 2022450
May 2022430
Apr 2022400
Mar 2022400
Feb 2022400
Jan 2022400
Dec 2021400
Nov 2021400
Oct 2021397
Sept 2021381
Aug 2021375
Jul 2021375
Jun 2021375
May 2021385
Apr 2021381
Mar 2021381
Feb 2021394
Jan 2021400
Dec 2020375
Nov 2020375
Oct 2020394
Sept 2020388
Aug 2020400
Jul 2020400
Jun 2020400
May 2020381
Apr 2020394
Mar 2020365
Feb 2020400
Jan 2020400
Dec 2019355
Nov 2019369
Oct 2019375
Sept 2019375
Aug 2019375
Jul 2019375
Jun 2019375
May 2019375
Apr 2019368
Mar 2019375
Feb 2019375
Jan 2019375
Dec 2018375
Nov 2018375
Oct 2018375
Sept 2018380
Aug 2018381
Jul 2018400
Jun 2018400
May 2018375
Apr 2018400
Mar 2018400
Feb 2018375
Jan 2018375
Dec 2017400
Nov 2017387
Oct 2017400
Sept 2017400
Aug 2017387
Jul 2017375
Jun 2017400
May 2017375
Apr 2017375
Mar 2017369
Feb 2017350
Jan 2017354
Dec 2016366
Nov 2016363
Oct 2016373
Sept 2016375
Aug 2016375
Jul 2016369
Jun 2016375
May 2016375
Apr 2016375
Mar 2016375
Feb 2016375
Jan 2016378
Dec 2015350
Nov 2015394
Oct 2015388
May 2015375

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-1816-64-retail-kg.