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Sorghum in Yorosso

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 28% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

109–220

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

99.4–245

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 28% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 13% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 109 and 220 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 99.4 and 245 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Yorosso: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 28% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 13% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 109 and 220 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 99.4 and 245 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 388); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 144–192 170 127–219 242 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 123–212 167 93.7–286 230 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 109–220 156 71–309 212 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 96.2–235 147 50.2–388 200 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 99.4–245 147 60.1–368 200 –
Price history (127 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026170
Jul 2026150
Jun 2026150
May 2026150
Apr 2026150
Mar 2026150
Feb 2026150
Jan 2026175
Dec 2025156
Oct 2025163
Sept 2025200
Aug 2025200
Jun 2025200
May 2025200
Apr 2025213
Mar 2025225
Feb 2025250
Jan 2025225
Dec 2024205
Oct 2024300
Sept 2024300
Aug 2024312
Jul 2024293
Jun 2024225
May 2024223
Apr 2024212
Mar 2024210
Jan 2024175
Nov 2023206
Oct 2023225
Sept 2023225
Aug 2023225
Jul 2023225
Jun 2023225
May 2023225
Apr 2023394
Mar 2023250
Dec 2022225
Nov 2022250
Oct 2022330
Sept 2022350
Aug 2022344
Jul 2022333
Jun 2022318
May 2022302
Apr 2022306
Mar 2022263
Feb 2022250
Jan 2022230
Dec 2021213
Nov 2021188
Oct 2021170
Sept 2021150
Aug 2021150
Jul 2021148
Jun 2021150
May 2021150
Apr 2021138
Feb 2021133
Jan 2021113
Dec 2020110
Nov 2020122
Oct 2020150
Sept 2020150
Aug 2020150
Jul 2020150
Jun 2020150
May 2020150
Apr 2020150
Mar 2020123
Feb 2020117
Jan 2020107
Dec 2019125
Nov 2019138
Oct 2019150
Sept 2019150
Aug 2019150
Jul 2019150
Jun 2019150
May 2019150
Apr 2019131
Mar 2019140
Feb 2019150
Jan 2019150
Dec 2018150
Nov 2018150
Oct 2018150
Sept 2018200
Aug 2018206
Jul 2018184
Jun 2018183
May 2018185
Apr 2018188
Mar 2018180
Feb 2018175
Jan 2018168
Dec 2017150
Nov 2017153
Oct 2017165
Sept 2017175
Aug 2017175
Jul 2017175
Jun 2017175
May 2017163
Apr 2017150
Mar 2017150
Feb 2017150
Jan 2017150
Dec 2016150
Nov 2016150
Oct 2016150
Sept 2016150
Aug 2016150
Jul 2016150
Jun 2016150
May 2016150
Apr 2016150
Mar 2016150
Feb 2016150
Jan 2016150
Dec 2015150
Nov 2015156
Oct 2015143
Aug 2015133
Jul 2015129
Jun 2015126
May 2015126

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-1816-65-retail-kg.