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Rice (local) in Yorosso

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 9% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

456–541

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

441–544

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 456 and 541 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 441 and 544 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Yorosso: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 456 and 541 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 441 and 544 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 475–527 486 443–540 549 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 465–536 486 430–550 549 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 456–541 486 381–584 534 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 451–545 486 385–568 542 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 441–544 482 381–580 540 –
Price history (124 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026485
Jul 2026481
Jun 2026500
May 2026500
Apr 2026513
Mar 2026525
Feb 2026525
Jan 2026525
Dec 2025525
Oct 2025525
Sept 2025525
Aug 2025525
Jun 2025525
May 2025525
Apr 2025525
Mar 2025550
Feb 2025533
Jan 2025550
Dec 2024570
Oct 2024575
Sept 2024555
Aug 2024550
Jul 2024550
Jun 2024550
May 2024550
Apr 2024475
Mar 2024450
Jan 2024444
Nov 2023488
Oct 2023488
Sept 2023488
Aug 2023469
Jul 2023463
Jun 2023463
May 2023444
Apr 2023450
Mar 2023450
Dec 2022488
Nov 2022488
Oct 2022468
Sept 2022463
Aug 2022463
Jul 2022438
Jun 2022425
May 2022413
Apr 2022413
Mar 2022413
Feb 2022413
Jan 2022413
Dec 2021413
Nov 2021400
Oct 2021425
Sept 2021406
Aug 2021400
Jul 2021400
Jun 2021400
May 2021400
Apr 2021400
Mar 2021400
Feb 2021400
Dec 2020388
Nov 2020400
Oct 2020400
Sept 2020400
Aug 2020400
Jul 2020400
Jun 2020400
May 2020400
Apr 2020400
Mar 2020375
Feb 2020400
Jan 2020400
Dec 2019385
Nov 2019388
Oct 2019378
Sept 2019400
Aug 2019400
Jul 2019400
Jun 2019378
May 2019375
Apr 2019375
Mar 2019375
Feb 2019375
Jan 2019375
Dec 2018375
Nov 2018375
Oct 2018425
Sept 2018425
Aug 2018415
Jul 2018415
Jun 2018418
May 2018400
Apr 2018400
Mar 2018400
Feb 2018400
Jan 2018400
Dec 2017400
Nov 2017400
Oct 2017390
Sept 2017400
Aug 2017390
Jul 2017375
Jun 2017375
May 2017375
Apr 2017375
Mar 2017369
Feb 2017350
Jan 2017371
Dec 2016370
Nov 2016369
Oct 2016371
Sept 2016375
Aug 2016375
Jul 2016350
Jun 2016350
May 2016361
Apr 2016375
Mar 2016363
Feb 2016365
Jan 2016365
Dec 2015378
Nov 2015394
Oct 2015400
May 2015355

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-1816-71-retail-kg.