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Millet in Yorosso

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Alert August 2026: 29% above the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

144–477

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

104–578

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

26%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 29% above the usual level for that time of year (alert). It rose 100% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 144 and 477 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 104 and 578 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 26%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Yorosso: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 29% above the usual level for that time of year (alert). It rose 100% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 144 and 477 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 104 and 578 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 26%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season
  • Not yet confirmed: a big move in the latest month, judged when next month is published

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 1,097); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 201–423 296 139–432 302 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 168–452 287 158–523 298 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 144–477 252 106–619 288 26%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 101–505 199 43.2–918 252 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 104–578 200 48–1,097 259 –
Price history (128 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026400Not yet confirmed
Jul 2026200
Jun 2026200
May 2026200
Apr 2026200
Mar 2026200
Feb 2026200
Jan 2026225
Dec 2025200
Oct 2025206
Sept 2025225
Aug 2025235
Jun 2025250
May 2025250
Apr 2025281
Mar 2025294
Feb 2025325
Jan 2025294
Dec 2024260
Oct 2024400
Sept 2024360
Aug 2024375
Jul 2024340
Jun 2024258
May 2024250
Apr 2024250
Mar 2024231
Jan 2024225
Nov 2023225
Oct 2023230
Sept 2023250
Aug 2023250
Jul 2023250
Jun 2023255
May 2023260
Apr 2023475
Mar 2023300
Dec 2022275
Nov 2022338
Oct 2022390
Sept 2022400
Aug 2022363
Jul 2022340
Jun 2022350
May 2022340
Apr 2022324
Mar 2022288
Feb 2022281
Jan 2022255
Dec 2021238
Nov 2021244
Oct 2021195
Sept 2021175
Aug 2021175
Jul 2021173
Jun 2021175
May 2021175
Apr 2021175
Mar 2021175
Feb 2021150
Jan 2021141
Dec 2020140
Nov 2020168
Oct 2020200
Sept 2020200
Aug 2020197
Jul 2020175
Jun 2020175
May 2020175
Apr 2020175
Mar 2020140
Feb 2020125
Jan 2020125
Dec 2019125
Nov 2019162
Oct 2019175
Sept 2019175
Aug 2019175
Jul 2019175
Jun 2019175
May 2019175
Apr 2019156
Mar 2019165
Feb 2019175
Jan 2019187
Dec 2018175
Nov 2018188
Oct 2018175
Sept 2018191
Aug 2018200
Jul 2018208
Jun 2018221
May 2018212
Apr 2018200
Mar 2018200
Feb 2018193
Jan 2018175
Dec 2017157
Nov 2017196
Oct 2017215
Sept 2017225
Aug 2017206
Jul 2017200
Jun 2017200
May 2017188
Apr 2017175
Mar 2017175
Feb 2017175
Jan 2017175
Dec 2016175
Nov 2016180
Oct 2016175
Sept 2016175
Aug 2016173
Jul 2016171
Jun 2016175
May 2016175
Apr 2016175
Mar 2016175
Feb 2016175
Jan 2016175
Dec 2015175
Nov 2015181
Oct 2015171
Aug 2015150
Jul 2015153
Jun 2015159
May 2015161

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-1816-73-retail-kg.