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Food basket in Yorosso

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,727–5,727

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,248–6,932

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 4,800 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 1,727 and 5,727 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,248 and 6,932 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Yorosso: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 4,800 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 1,727 and 5,727 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,248 and 6,932 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,0008,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 13,161); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,407–5,078 3,553 1,673–5,180
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,017–5,420 3,448 1,896–6,282
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,727–5,727 3,025 1,274–7,430
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,210–6,062 2,389 518–11,016
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,248–6,932 2,397 576–13,161
Cost history (128 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20264,800
Jul 20262,400
Jun 20262,400
May 20262,400
Apr 20262,400
Mar 20262,400
Feb 20262,400
Jan 20262,700
Dec 20252,400
Oct 20252,472
Sept 20252,700
Aug 20252,820
Jun 20253,000
May 20253,000
Apr 20253,372
Mar 20253,528
Feb 20253,900
Jan 20253,528
Dec 20243,120
Oct 20244,800
Sept 20244,320
Aug 20244,500
Jul 20244,080
Jun 20243,096
May 20243,000
Apr 20243,000
Mar 20242,772
Jan 20242,700
Nov 20232,700
Oct 20232,760
Sept 20233,000
Aug 20233,000
Jul 20233,000
Jun 20233,060
May 20233,120
Apr 20235,700
Mar 20233,600
Dec 20223,300
Nov 20224,056
Oct 20224,680
Sept 20224,800
Aug 20224,356
Jul 20224,080
Jun 20224,200
May 20224,080
Apr 20223,888
Mar 20223,456
Feb 20223,372
Jan 20223,060
Dec 20212,856
Nov 20212,928
Oct 20212,340
Sept 20212,100
Aug 20212,100
Jul 20212,076
Jun 20212,100
May 20212,100
Apr 20212,100
Mar 20212,100
Feb 20211,800
Jan 20211,692
Dec 20201,680
Nov 20202,016
Oct 20202,400
Sept 20202,400
Aug 20202,364
Jul 20202,100
Jun 20202,100
May 20202,100
Apr 20202,100
Mar 20201,680
Feb 20201,500
Jan 20201,500
Dec 20191,500
Nov 20191,950
Oct 20192,100
Sept 20192,100
Aug 20192,100
Jul 20192,100
Jun 20192,100
May 20192,100
Apr 20191,872
Mar 20191,980
Feb 20192,100
Jan 20192,244
Dec 20182,100
Nov 20182,250
Oct 20182,100
Sept 20182,292
Aug 20182,400
Jul 20182,496
Jun 20182,652
May 20182,544
Apr 20182,400
Mar 20182,400
Feb 20182,316
Jan 20182,100
Dec 20171,884
Nov 20172,352
Oct 20172,580
Sept 20172,700
Aug 20172,472
Jul 20172,400
Jun 20172,400
May 20172,256
Apr 20172,100
Mar 20172,100
Feb 20172,100
Jan 20172,100
Dec 20162,100
Nov 20162,160
Oct 20162,100
Sept 20162,100
Aug 20162,076
Jul 20162,052
Jun 20162,100
May 20162,100
Apr 20162,100
Mar 20162,100
Feb 20162,100
Jan 20162,100
Dec 20152,100
Nov 20152,172
Oct 20152,052
Aug 20151,800
Jul 20151,836
Jun 20151,908
May 20151,932

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189