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Rice (imported) in Koro

Mopti, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 8% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

467–571

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

440–611

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 467 and 571 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 440 and 611 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Koro: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 467 and 571 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 440 and 611 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 772); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 486–545 499 472–598 567 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 478–569 499 449–613 577 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 467–571 499 392–617 551 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 455–589 500 365–635 571 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 440–611 497 353–772 569 –
Price history (102 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026500
Jul 2026500
Jun 2026500
May 2026500
Apr 2026500
Mar 2026500
Feb 2026500
Dec 2025600
Oct 2025575
Sept 2025570
Aug 2025580
May 2025555
Apr 2025573
Mar 2025580
Jan 2025600
Dec 2024600
Oct 2024600
Sept 2024582
May 2024555
Apr 2024550
Mar 2024600
Feb 2024520
Dec 2023500
Oct 2023500
Sept 2023500
Aug 2023500
Jul 2023500
Jun 2023470
May 2023450
Apr 2023450
Mar 2023400
Feb 2023450
Jan 2023440
Dec 2022400
Nov 2022400
Oct 2022400
Sept 2022400
Aug 2022450
Jul 2022450
Jun 2022450
May 2022450
Apr 2022450
Mar 2022450
Feb 2022400
Jan 2022400
Dec 2021400
Nov 2021395
Oct 2021400
Sept 2021400
Aug 2021370
Jul 2021400
Jul 2020375
May 2020375
Apr 2020380
Mar 2020375
Feb 2020375
Jan 2020350
Dec 2019350
Sept 2019350
Aug 2019350
Jul 2019350
Apr 2019400
Mar 2019350
Feb 2019350
Jan 2019375
Nov 2018375
Oct 2018375
Sept 2018375
Jul 2018368
Jun 2018375
May 2018362
Apr 2018350
Mar 2018350
Feb 2018350
Jan 2018350
Dec 2017350
Nov 2017350
Oct 2017350
Sept 2017350
Aug 2017350
Jul 2017350
Jun 2017350
May 2017350
Apr 2017350
Mar 2017350
Feb 2017350
Jan 2017350
Dec 2016350
Nov 2016350
Oct 2016350
Sept 2016350
Aug 2016350
Jul 2016350
Jun 2016350
May 2016350
Mar 2016350
Feb 2016350
Jan 2016350
Dec 2015350
Nov 2015350
Oct 2015350
May 2015375

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-1817-64-retail-kg.