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Millet in Koro

Mopti, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 17% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

163–313

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

152–340

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

8%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 163 and 313 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 152 and 340 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Koro: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 163 and 313 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 152 and 340 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 648); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 182–253 207 165–321 272 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 173–288 208 152–430 286 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 163–313 201 142–505 261 8%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 142–326 199 93–648 235 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 152–340 199 114–541 257 –
Price history (108 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026208
Jul 2026200
Jun 2026194
May 2026195
Apr 2026197
Mar 2026196
Feb 2026190
Dec 2025236
Oct 2025199
Sept 2025208
Aug 2025224
May 2025291
Apr 2025275
Mar 2025311
Jan 2025300
Dec 2024236
Oct 2024348
Sept 2024346
May 2024276
Apr 2024254
Mar 2024237
Feb 2024207
Dec 2023178
Oct 2023320
Sept 2023207
Aug 2023208
Jul 2023208
Jun 2023183
May 2023200
Apr 2023200
Mar 2023260
Feb 2023255
Jan 2023270
Dec 2022205
Nov 2022275
Oct 2022350
Sept 2022350
Aug 2022368
Jul 2022350
Jun 2022325
May 2022370
Apr 2022350
Mar 2022277
Feb 2022230
Jan 2022224
Dec 2021230
Nov 2021206
Oct 2021180
Sept 2021175
Aug 2021175
Jul 2021181
Aug 2020175
Jul 2020160
Jun 2020160
May 2020150
Apr 2020140
Mar 2020140
Feb 2020140
Jan 2020135
Dec 2019135
Sept 2019140
Aug 2019150
Jul 2019165
May 2019210
Apr 2019152
Mar 2019160
Feb 2019160
Jan 2019160
Nov 2018160
Oct 2018170
Sept 2018220
Jul 2018201
Jun 2018202
May 2018205
Apr 2018206
Mar 2018202
Feb 2018207
Jan 2018187
Dec 2017174
Nov 2017182
Oct 2017195
Sept 2017224
Aug 2017215
Jul 2017200
Jun 2017200
May 2017200
Apr 2017177
Mar 2017168
Feb 2017164
Jan 2017156
Dec 2016154
Nov 2016164
Oct 2016170
Sept 2016170
Aug 2016165
Jul 2016160
Jun 2016160
May 2016160
Mar 2016155
Feb 2016151
Jan 2016140
Dec 2015150
Nov 2015150
Oct 2015150
Aug 2015165
Jul 2015166
Jun 2015170
May 2015160

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-1817-73-retail-kg.