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Food basket in Koro

Mopti, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,957–3,751

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,827–4,085

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,490 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 1,957 and 3,751 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,827 and 4,085 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Koro: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,490 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 1,957 and 3,751 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,827 and 4,085 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 7,775); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,183–3,035 2,489 1,980–3,856
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,081–3,460 2,501 1,823–5,158
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,957–3,751 2,415 1,705–6,064
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,709–3,913 2,383 1,116–7,775
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,827–4,085 2,386 1,369–6,492
Cost history (108 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20262,490
Jul 20262,400
Jun 20262,328
May 20262,340
Apr 20262,361
Mar 20262,358
Feb 20262,280
Dec 20252,838
Oct 20252,388
Sept 20252,490
Aug 20252,694
May 20253,492
Apr 20253,300
Mar 20253,732
Jan 20253,600
Dec 20242,838
Oct 20244,176
Sept 20244,158
May 20243,312
Apr 20243,048
Mar 20242,844
Feb 20242,484
Dec 20232,130
Oct 20233,840
Sept 20232,484
Aug 20232,490
Jul 20232,496
Jun 20232,196
May 20232,400
Apr 20232,400
Mar 20233,120
Feb 20233,060
Jan 20233,234
Dec 20222,460
Nov 20223,300
Oct 20224,200
Sept 20224,200
Aug 20224,416
Jul 20224,200
Jun 20223,900
May 20224,440
Apr 20224,200
Mar 20223,324
Feb 20222,760
Jan 20222,688
Dec 20212,760
Nov 20212,472
Oct 20212,160
Sept 20212,100
Aug 20212,100
Jul 20212,172
Aug 20202,100
Jul 20201,920
Jun 20201,920
May 20201,800
Apr 20201,680
Mar 20201,680
Feb 20201,680
Jan 20201,620
Dec 20191,620
Sept 20191,680
Aug 20191,800
Jul 20191,980
May 20192,520
Apr 20191,824
Mar 20191,920
Feb 20191,920
Jan 20191,920
Nov 20181,920
Oct 20182,040
Sept 20182,640
Jul 20182,412
Jun 20182,424
May 20182,460
Apr 20182,472
Mar 20182,424
Feb 20182,484
Jan 20182,244
Dec 20172,088
Nov 20172,184
Oct 20172,340
Sept 20172,688
Aug 20172,580
Jul 20172,400
Jun 20172,400
May 20172,400
Apr 20172,124
Mar 20172,016
Feb 20171,968
Jan 20171,872
Dec 20161,848
Nov 20161,968
Oct 20162,040
Sept 20162,040
Aug 20161,980
Jul 20161,920
Jun 20161,920
May 20161,920
Mar 20161,860
Feb 20161,812
Jan 20161,680
Dec 20151,800
Nov 20151,800
Oct 20151,800
Aug 20151,980
Jul 20151,992
Jun 20152,040
May 20151,920

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189