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Sorghum in Kourouma

Segou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 13% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

207–334

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

181–392

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 5% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 207 and 334 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 181 and 392 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Kourouma: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 5% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 207 and 334 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 181 and 392 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400500202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 680); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 233–290 258 206–330 307 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 217–304 258 191–360 311 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 207–334 252 178–436 331 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 195–368 251 152–603 320 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 181–392 254 116–680 290 –
Price history (111 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026260
Jul 2026260
Jun 2026270
May 2026275
Apr 2026269
Mar 2026269
Feb 2026269
Jan 2026275
Dec 2025245
Oct 2025240
Sept 2025248
Aug 2025259
Jun 2025260
May 2025258
Apr 2025350
Mar 2025262
Feb 2025265
Jan 2025262
Dec 2024329
Nov 2024350
Oct 2024350
Sept 2024350
Aug 2024350
Jul 2024290
Jun 2024250
May 2024250
Apr 2024250
Mar 2024257
Jan 2024260
Nov 2023300
Oct 2023300
Sept 2023300
Aug 2023300
Jul 2023300
Jun 2023300
May 2023300
Apr 2023290
Mar 2023225
Feb 2023225
Dec 2022400
Nov 2022404
Oct 2022420
Sept 2022419
Aug 2022388
Jul 2022388
Jun 2022396
May 2022389
Apr 2022356
Mar 2022313
Feb 2022303
Jan 2022300
Dec 2021275
Nov 2021200
Oct 2021175
Sept 2021175
Aug 2021175
Jul 2021175
Jun 2021175
May 2021175
Apr 2021175
Feb 2021194
Jan 2021188
Dec 2020200
Nov 2020181
Oct 2020188
Sept 2020165
Aug 2020150
Jul 2020160
Jun 2020163
May 2020150
Apr 2020150
Mar 2020150
Feb 2020150
Jan 2020150
Dec 2019192
Jul 2018257
Jun 2018250
May 2018250
Apr 2018250
Mar 2018250
Feb 2018258
Jan 2018278
Dec 2017237
Nov 2017257
Oct 2017250
Sept 2017250
Aug 2017250
Jul 2017225
Jun 2017225
May 2017225
Mar 2017194
Feb 2017175
Jan 2017175
Dec 2016200
Nov 2016200
Oct 2016175
Sept 2016175
Aug 2016175
Jul 2016175
Jun 2016175
May 2016175
Mar 2016175
Feb 2016175
Jan 2016175
Dec 2015175
Nov 2015183
Oct 2015200
Aug 2015200
Jul 2015200
Jun 2015200
May 2015228

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-1818-65-retail-kg.