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Rice (local) in Kourouma

Segou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 18% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

304–417

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

287–423

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 18% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 8% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 304 and 417 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 287 and 423 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Kourouma: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 18% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 8% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 304 and 417 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 287 and 423 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 332–406 351 314–443 440 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 313–422 351 293–540 414 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 304–417 348 275–431 403 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 298–434 346 263–479 398 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 287–423 342 241–488 390 –
Price history (109 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026350
Jul 2026340
Jun 2026325
May 2026325
Apr 2026325
Mar 2026344
Feb 2026344
Jan 2026350
Dec 2025333
Oct 2025337
Sept 2025339
Aug 2025380
Jun 2025325
May 2025353
Apr 2025460
Mar 2025426
Feb 2025416
Jan 2025426
Dec 2024388
Nov 2024375
Oct 2024500
Sept 2024498
Aug 2024470
Jul 2024410
Jun 2024408
May 2024418
Apr 2024423
Mar 2024392
Jan 2024375
Nov 2023350
Oct 2023350
Sept 2023400
Aug 2023425
Jul 2023423
Jun 2023547
May 2023558
Apr 2023426
Mar 2023425
Feb 2023425
Dec 2022425
Nov 2022416
Oct 2022369
Sept 2022450
Aug 2022431
Jul 2022375
Jun 2022375
May 2022375
Apr 2022365
Mar 2022352
Feb 2022345
Jan 2022330
Dec 2021336
Nov 2021315
Oct 2021373
Sept 2021366
Aug 2021335
Jul 2021303
Jun 2021289
May 2021325
Apr 2021324
Mar 2021318
Feb 2021313
Jan 2021286
Dec 2020301
Nov 2020310
Oct 2020314
Sept 2020321
Aug 2020288
Jul 2020275
Jun 2020275
May 2020294
Apr 2020295
Mar 2020287
Feb 2020291
Jan 2020274
Dec 2019282
Jul 2018322
Jun 2018316
May 2018330
Apr 2018300
Mar 2018300
Feb 2018299
Jan 2018287
Dec 2017297
Nov 2017287
Oct 2017284
Sept 2017332
Aug 2017325
Jul 2017305
Jun 2017309
Apr 2017295
Mar 2017279
Feb 2017276
Jan 2017271
Dec 2016272
Nov 2016275
Oct 2016282
Sept 2016278
Aug 2016308
Jul 2016283
Jun 2016300
May 2016303
Mar 2016284
Feb 2016275
Jan 2016270
Dec 2015271
Nov 2015275
Oct 2015282
May 2015309

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-1818-71-retail-kg.