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Millet in Kourouma

Segou, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 36% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

171–342

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

151–449

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 36% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 21% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 171 and 342 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 151 and 449 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Kourouma: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 36% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 21% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 171 and 342 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 151 and 449 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 1,069); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 188–302 213 166–390 332 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 179–323 213 145–443 341 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 171–342 213 131–428 349 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 157–374 212 113–578 334 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 151–449 209 110–1,069 305 –
Price history (114 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026198
Jul 2026275
Jun 2026258
May 2026250
Apr 2026250
Mar 2026256
Feb 2026256
Jan 2026300
Dec 2025300
Oct 2025300
Sept 2025264
Aug 2025280
Jun 2025300
May 2025294
Apr 2025350
Mar 2025287
Feb 2025290
Jan 2025287
Dec 2024373
Nov 2024400
Oct 2024400
Sept 2024388
Aug 2024375
Jul 2024300
Jun 2024269
May 2024255
Apr 2024255
Mar 2024263
Jan 2024265
Nov 2023300
Oct 2023300
Sept 2023300
Aug 2023295
Jul 2023276
Jun 2023280
May 2023280
Apr 2023279
Mar 2023280
Feb 2023280
Dec 2022325
Nov 2022360
Oct 2022425
Sept 2022419
Aug 2022394
Jul 2022383
Jun 2022396
May 2022390
Apr 2022378
Mar 2022336
Feb 2022303
Jan 2022300
Dec 2021275
Nov 2021213
Oct 2021200
Sept 2021200
Aug 2021200
Jul 2021200
Jun 2021200
May 2021200
Apr 2021200
Mar 2021200
Feb 2021181
Jan 2021188
Dec 2020235
Nov 2020231
Oct 2020225
Sept 2020215
Aug 2020200
Jul 2020200
Jun 2020188
May 2020175
Apr 2020175
Mar 2020175
Feb 2020175
Jan 2020181
Dec 2019192
Aug 2018200
Jul 2018257
Jun 2018250
May 2018250
Apr 2018250
Mar 2018250
Feb 2018252
Jan 2018265
Dec 2017237
Nov 2017257
Oct 2017250
Sept 2017250
Aug 2017250
Jul 2017225
Jun 2017225
May 2017225
Apr 2017200
Mar 2017194
Feb 2017175
Jan 2017175
Dec 2016200
Nov 2016200
Oct 2016175
Sept 2016175
Aug 2016175
Jul 2016175
Jun 2016175
May 2016175
Mar 2016175
Feb 2016175
Jan 2016175
Dec 2015175
Nov 2015183
Oct 2015200
Aug 2015200
Jul 2015200
Jun 2015200
May 2015216

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-1818-73-retail-kg.