Staple Signals Français

Home › Mali

Food basket in Kourouma

Segou, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,048–4,109

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,818–5,393

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,370 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,048 and 4,109 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,818 and 5,393 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Kourouma: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 2,370 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,048 and 4,109 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,818 and 5,393 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 12,826); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,254–3,618 2,553 1,986–4,685
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,147–3,880 2,553 1,737–5,317
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,048–4,109 2,559 1,567–5,139
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,889–4,486 2,539 1,358–6,933
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,818–5,393 2,506 1,319–12,826
Cost history (114 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20262,370
Jul 20263,300
Jun 20263,096
May 20263,000
Apr 20263,000
Mar 20263,075
Feb 20263,075
Jan 20263,600
Dec 20253,600
Oct 20253,600
Sept 20253,168
Aug 20253,360
Jun 20253,600
May 20253,528
Apr 20254,200
Mar 20253,444
Feb 20253,480
Jan 20253,444
Dec 20244,476
Nov 20244,800
Oct 20244,800
Sept 20244,656
Aug 20244,500
Jul 20243,600
Jun 20243,228
May 20243,060
Apr 20243,060
Mar 20243,156
Jan 20243,180
Nov 20233,600
Oct 20233,600
Sept 20233,600
Aug 20233,540
Jul 20233,312
Jun 20233,360
May 20233,360
Apr 20233,348
Mar 20233,360
Feb 20233,360
Dec 20223,900
Nov 20224,320
Oct 20225,100
Sept 20225,028
Aug 20224,728
Jul 20224,596
Jun 20224,752
May 20224,680
Apr 20224,536
Mar 20224,032
Feb 20223,636
Jan 20223,600
Dec 20213,300
Nov 20212,556
Oct 20212,400
Sept 20212,400
Aug 20212,400
Jul 20212,400
Jun 20212,400
May 20212,400
Apr 20212,400
Mar 20212,400
Feb 20212,172
Jan 20212,256
Dec 20202,820
Nov 20202,772
Oct 20202,700
Sept 20202,580
Aug 20202,400
Jul 20202,400
Jun 20202,256
May 20202,100
Apr 20202,100
Mar 20202,100
Feb 20202,100
Jan 20202,172
Dec 20192,304
Aug 20182,400
Jul 20183,084
Jun 20183,000
May 20183,000
Apr 20183,000
Mar 20183,000
Feb 20183,024
Jan 20183,180
Dec 20172,844
Nov 20173,084
Oct 20173,000
Sept 20173,000
Aug 20173,000
Jul 20172,700
Jun 20172,700
May 20172,700
Apr 20172,400
Mar 20172,328
Feb 20172,100
Jan 20172,100
Dec 20162,400
Nov 20162,400
Oct 20162,100
Sept 20162,100
Aug 20162,100
Jul 20162,100
Jun 20162,100
May 20162,100
Mar 20162,100
Feb 20162,100
Jan 20162,100
Dec 20152,100
Nov 20152,196
Oct 20152,400
Aug 20152,400
Jul 20152,400
Jun 20152,400
May 20152,592

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189