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Rice (imported) in Kiffosso

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 10% below the usual level for that time of year.

Irregular reports. This market published a price in 6 of the last 12 months. Prices here can change more, for example through insecurity or road closures; the forecast range is wider accordingly. In past tests, the 80 % range for next month held in 81% of cases in markets that report irregularly, against 77% in markets that report regularly.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

480–588

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

474–625

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 10% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 480 and 588 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 474 and 625 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Kiffosso: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 10% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 480 and 588 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 474 and 625 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 856); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 491–547 499 468–612 567 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 486–567 501 470–644 575 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 480–588 502 426–680 577 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 477–615 504 431–778 574 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 474–625 495 466–856 564 –
Price history (105 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026500
Jul 2026500
Jun 2026500
May 2026500
Oct 2025550
Sept 2025550
Aug 2025550
Jun 2025550
May 2025550
Apr 2025550
Mar 2025600
Feb 2025600
Jan 2025600
Dec 2024600
Nov 2024600
Oct 2024590
Sept 2024550
Aug 2024550
Jul 2024550
Jun 2024550
Apr 2024510
Mar 2024500
Jan 2024500
Nov 2023500
Oct 2023500
Sept 2023500
Aug 2023500
Jul 2023500
Jun 2023500
May 2023500
Apr 2023450
Mar 2023450
Feb 2023450
Dec 2022450
Nov 2022450
Oct 2022450
Sept 2022450
Aug 2022445
Jul 2022425
Jun 2022413
May 2022400
Apr 2022400
Mar 2022400
Feb 2022400
Jan 2022400
Dec 2021400
Nov 2021400
Oct 2021394
Sept 2021375
Aug 2021375
Jul 2021375
Jun 2021375
May 2021375
Apr 2021375
Mar 2021370
Feb 2021375
Jan 2021375
Nov 2020375
Oct 2020375
Sept 2020375
Aug 2020375
Jul 2020369
Jun 2020355
May 2020369
Apr 2020350
Mar 2020350
Feb 2020350
Jan 2020350
Dec 2019350
Aug 2018375
Jul 2018390
Jun 2018400
May 2018375
Apr 2018375
Mar 2018366
Feb 2018325
Jan 2018350
Dec 2017375
Nov 2017375
Oct 2017375
Sept 2017375
Aug 2017375
Jul 2017375
Jun 2017375
May 2017380
Apr 2017356
Mar 2017350
Feb 2017350
Jan 2017350
Dec 2016350
Nov 2016350
Oct 2016350
Sept 2016355
Aug 2016350
Jul 2016350
Jun 2016350
May 2016350
Apr 2016350
Mar 2016350
Feb 2016350
Jan 2016350
Dec 2015350
Nov 2015350
Oct 2015375
May 2015350

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-1819-64-retail-kg.