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Rice (local) in Kiffosso

Sikasso, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Stress August 2026: 5% above the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

391–556

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

334–616

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

14%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 5% above the usual level for that time of year (stress). It rose 8% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 391 and 556 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 334 and 616 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 14%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Kiffosso: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 5% above the usual level for that time of year (stress). It rose 8% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 391 and 556 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 334 and 616 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 14%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 886); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 421–515 470 414–540 464 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 412–533 470 393–610 466 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 391–556 466 320–655 482 14%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 371–585 467 320–772 453 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 334–616 442 263–886 435 –
Price history (105 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026488
Jul 2026450
Jun 2026450
May 2026450
Apr 2026450
Mar 2026450
Feb 2026450
Jan 2026350
Dec 2025350
Oct 2025350
Sept 2025350
Aug 2025350
Jun 2025350
May 2025350
Apr 2025350
Oct 2024500
Sept 2024500
Aug 2024500
Jul 2024425
Jun 2024425
May 2024425
Apr 2024447
Mar 2024450
Jan 2024450
Nov 2023488
Oct 2023488
Sept 2023488
Aug 2023468
Jul 2023463
Jun 2023463
May 2023443
Apr 2023438
Mar 2023450
Feb 2023450
Dec 2022550
Nov 2022510
Oct 2022500
Sept 2022500
Aug 2022480
Jul 2022400
Jun 2022400
May 2022400
Apr 2022400
Mar 2022400
Feb 2022400
Jan 2022425
Dec 2021425
Nov 2021420
Oct 2021400
Sept 2021388
Aug 2021375
Jul 2021350
Jun 2021363
May 2021369
Apr 2021359
Mar 2021348
Feb 2021363
Nov 2020369
Oct 2020369
Sept 2020375
Aug 2020369
Jul 2020350
Jun 2020355
May 2020350
Apr 2020350
Mar 2020350
Feb 2020350
Jan 2020350
Dec 2019341
Aug 2018400
Jul 2018400
Jun 2018378
May 2018377
Apr 2018368
Mar 2018350
Feb 2018337
Jan 2018355
Dec 2017368
Nov 2017375
Oct 2017375
Sept 2017375
Aug 2017363
Jul 2017375
Jun 2017370
May 2017366
Apr 2017350
Mar 2017350
Feb 2017339
Jan 2017345
Dec 2016350
Nov 2016350
Oct 2016353
Sept 2016350
Aug 2016350
Jul 2016350
Jun 2016347
May 2016347
Apr 2016350
Mar 2016345
Feb 2016341
Jan 2016338
Dec 2015344
Nov 2015350
Oct 2015348
May 2015341

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-1819-71-retail-kg.