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Sorghum in Youwarou

Mopti, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 16% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

244–373

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

234–438

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 11% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 244 and 373 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 234 and 438 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Youwarou: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 11% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 63 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 244 and 373 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 234 and 438 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 672); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 268–336 297 247–376 375 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 254–354 296 236–430 376 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 244–373 294 214–481 360 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 239–408 292 224–591 378 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 234–438 293 206–672 359 –
Price history (115 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026300
Jul 2026300
Jun 2026283
May 2026271
Apr 2026275
Mar 2026288
Feb 2026288
Jan 2026300
Dec 2025350
Oct 2025300
Sept 2025313
Aug 2025380
Jun 2025350
May 2025380
Apr 2025400
Mar 2025400
Feb 2025375
Jan 2025400
Dec 2024410
Oct 2024450
Sept 2024431
Aug 2024338
Jul 2024300
Jun 2024300
May 2024300
Apr 2024300
Mar 2024300
Feb 2024300
Jan 2024300
Nov 2023325
Oct 2023300
Sept 2023305
Aug 2023306
Jul 2023325
Jun 2023325
May 2023338
Apr 2023350
Mar 2023300
Dec 2022350
Nov 2022369
Oct 2022413
Sept 2022375
Aug 2022381
Jul 2022375
Jun 2022356
May 2022363
Apr 2022325
Mar 2022306
Feb 2022313
Jan 2022300
Dec 2021270
Nov 2021213
Oct 2021200
Sept 2021200
Aug 2021200
Jul 2021214
Jun 2021219
May 2021200
Apr 2021200
Feb 2021200
Jan 2021200
Dec 2020200
Nov 2020200
Oct 2020200
Sept 2020200
Aug 2020200
Jul 2020200
Jun 2020200
May 2020200
Apr 2020200
Mar 2020200
Feb 2020200
Jan 2020200
Dec 2019200
Nov 2019220
Oct 2019250
Sept 2019242
Aug 2019200
Jul 2019200
Jun 2019200
May 2019200
Apr 2019220
Mar 2019252
Feb 2019255
Jan 2019250
Dec 2018250
Nov 2018250
Oct 2018252
Sept 2018275
Aug 2018275
Jul 2018250
Jun 2018250
May 2018215
Apr 2018250
Mar 2018250
Feb 2018200
Jan 2018200
Dec 2017235
Nov 2017200
Oct 2017220
Sept 2017222
Aug 2017200
Jul 2017231
Jun 2017213
May 2017200
Apr 2017200
Mar 2017200
Feb 2017200
Jan 2017196
Dec 2016198
Nov 2016200
Oct 2016200
Sept 2016200
Aug 2016200
Jul 2016200

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-1932-65-retail-kg.