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Rice (local) in Youwarou

Mopti, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 13% below the usual level for that time of year.

Irregular reports. This market published a price in 8 of the last 12 months. Prices here can change more, for example through insecurity or road closures; the forecast range is wider accordingly. In past tests, the 80 % range for next month held in 81% of cases in markets that report irregularly, against 77% in markets that report regularly.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

338–448

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

311–445

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 338 and 448 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 311 and 445 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Youwarou: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 338 and 448 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 311 and 445 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 353–421 375 352–424 468 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 345–436 373 324–458 441 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 338–448 372 280–483 438 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 318–470 365 290–529 413 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 311–445 362 283–478 413 –
Price history (100 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026372
Jul 2026356
Jun 2026342
May 2026340
Apr 2026350
Mar 2026350
Feb 2026350
Jan 2026350
Aug 2025450
Jun 2025450
May 2025455
Apr 2025475
Mar 2025450
Feb 2025440
Jan 2025450
Sept 2024575
Aug 2024450
Jul 2024433
Jun 2024391
May 2024380
Apr 2024363
Mar 2024350
Feb 2024349
Jan 2024350
Oct 2023400
Sept 2023410
Aug 2023400
Jul 2023410
Jun 2023400
May 2023400
Apr 2023400
Mar 2023400
Dec 2022400
Sept 2022450
Aug 2022470
Jul 2022354
Jun 2022375
May 2022393
Apr 2022355
Mar 2022344
Feb 2022344
Jan 2022347
Dec 2021350
Sept 2021338
Aug 2021300
Jul 2021300
Jun 2021355
May 2021300
Apr 2021330
Mar 2021300
Feb 2021250
Dec 2020300
Nov 2020300
Oct 2020305
Sept 2020275
Aug 2020266
Jul 2020250
Jun 2020260
May 2020250
Apr 2020250
Mar 2020247
Feb 2020250
Jan 2020250
Dec 2019245
Sept 2019290
Aug 2019275
Jul 2019297
Jun 2019295
May 2019297
Mar 2019292
Feb 2019300
Jan 2019320
Dec 2018295
Nov 2018320
Sept 2018380
Aug 2018340
Jul 2018340
Jun 2018325
May 2018317
Apr 2018316
Mar 2018300
Feb 2018283
Jan 2018310
Dec 2017300
Nov 2017312
Sept 2017332
Aug 2017300
Jul 2017300
Jun 2017300
May 2017300
Apr 2017300
Mar 2017286
Feb 2017275
Jan 2017278
Dec 2016298
Nov 2016314
Oct 2016322
Sept 2016325
Aug 2016322
Jul 2016323

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-1932-71-retail-kg.