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Millet in Youwarou

Mopti, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 13% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

261–420

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

238–504

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

8%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 20% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 261 and 420 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 238 and 504 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Youwarou: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 20% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 261 and 420 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 238 and 504 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 875); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 285–359 320 255–389 356 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 277–401 320 252–520 422 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 261–420 315 206–585 365 8%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 241–488 314 181–875 369 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 238–504 305 182–837 360 –
Price history (96 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026322
Jul 2026296
Jun 2026275
May 2026269
Apr 2026275
Mar 2026288
Feb 2026288
Jan 2026300
Sept 2025300
Jun 2025400
May 2025405
Apr 2025425
Mar 2025400
Feb 2025390
Jan 2025400
Dec 2024400
Aug 2024363
Jul 2024325
Jun 2024300
May 2024300
Apr 2024300
Mar 2024300
Feb 2024260
Jan 2024300
Nov 2023300
Oct 2023300
Aug 2023313
Jul 2023300
Jun 2023350
May 2023350
Apr 2023350
Mar 2023350
Oct 2022425
Sept 2022420
Aug 2022413
Jul 2022385
Jun 2022394
May 2022362
Apr 2022375
Mar 2022318
Feb 2022313
Jan 2022300
Dec 2021270
Sept 2021225
Aug 2021225
Jul 2021225
Jun 2021225
May 2021200
Apr 2021225
Mar 2021200
Feb 2021200
Jan 2021200
Nov 2020250
Sept 2020224
Aug 2020204
Jul 2020200
Jun 2020200
May 2020200
Apr 2020200
Mar 2020200
Feb 2020195
Jan 2020200
Dec 2019200
Nov 2019220
Aug 2019225
Jul 2019200
Jun 2019200
May 2019200
Apr 2019205
Mar 2019250
Feb 2019250
Jan 2019250
Dec 2018250
Nov 2018250
Oct 2018250
Aug 2018260
Jul 2018250
Jun 2018250
May 2018250
Apr 2018250
Mar 2018250
Feb 2018237
Jan 2018250
Nov 2017235
Oct 2017250
Aug 2017250
Jul 2017250
Jun 2017213
May 2017200
Apr 2017200
Mar 2017200
Feb 2017200
Jan 2017198
Dec 2016200
Aug 2016200
Jul 2016200

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-1932-73-retail-kg.