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Food basket in Youwarou

Mopti, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

3,127–5,044

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,854–6,044

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,864 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,127 and 5,044 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,854 and 6,044 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Youwarou: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,864 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,127 and 5,044 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,854 and 6,044 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,0008,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 10,504); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 3,417–4,304 3,846 3,066–4,664
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 3,325–4,811 3,836 3,030–6,243
Nov 2026
Next month		 3,127–5,044 3,779 2,476–7,021
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,888–5,859 3,765 2,178–10,504
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,854–6,044 3,664 2,179–10,042
Cost history (96 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20263,864
Jul 20263,552
Jun 20263,300
May 20263,228
Apr 20263,300
Mar 20263,450
Feb 20263,450
Jan 20263,600
Sept 20253,600
Jun 20254,800
May 20254,860
Apr 20255,100
Mar 20254,800
Feb 20254,680
Jan 20254,800
Dec 20244,800
Aug 20244,356
Jul 20243,900
Jun 20243,600
May 20243,600
Apr 20243,600
Mar 20243,600
Feb 20243,114
Jan 20243,600
Nov 20233,600
Oct 20233,600
Aug 20233,756
Jul 20233,600
Jun 20234,200
May 20234,200
Apr 20234,200
Mar 20234,200
Oct 20225,100
Sept 20225,040
Aug 20224,956
Jul 20224,620
Jun 20224,728
May 20224,344
Apr 20224,500
Mar 20223,816
Feb 20223,756
Jan 20223,600
Dec 20213,240
Sept 20212,700
Aug 20212,700
Jul 20212,700
Jun 20212,700
May 20212,400
Apr 20212,700
Mar 20212,400
Feb 20212,400
Jan 20212,400
Nov 20203,000
Sept 20202,688
Aug 20202,448
Jul 20202,400
Jun 20202,400
May 20202,400
Apr 20202,400
Mar 20202,400
Feb 20202,340
Jan 20202,400
Dec 20192,400
Nov 20192,640
Aug 20192,700
Jul 20192,400
Jun 20192,400
May 20192,400
Apr 20192,460
Mar 20193,000
Feb 20193,000
Jan 20193,000
Dec 20183,000
Nov 20183,000
Oct 20183,000
Aug 20183,120
Jul 20183,000
Jun 20183,000
May 20183,000
Apr 20183,000
Mar 20183,000
Feb 20182,844
Jan 20183,000
Nov 20172,820
Oct 20173,000
Aug 20173,000
Jul 20173,000
Jun 20172,556
May 20172,400
Apr 20172,400
Mar 20172,400
Feb 20172,400
Jan 20172,376
Dec 20162,400
Aug 20162,400
Jul 20162,400

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189