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Rice (local) in Bourem

Gao, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 9% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

422–673

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

399–774

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

18%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 422 and 673 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 399 and 774 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 18%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Bourem: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 422 and 673 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 399 and 774 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 18%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).02004006008001,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 1,279); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 475–592 515 456–620 623 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 461–642 522 401–642 647 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 422–673 499 312–864 524 18%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 415–749 513 311–1,080 601 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 399–774 508 280–1,279 581 –
Price history (98 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026515
Jul 2026520
Jun 2026503
May 2026498
Apr 2026460
Mar 2026440
Feb 2026435
Dec 2025710
Oct 2025585
Sept 2025595
Apr 2025560
Dec 2024710
Oct 2024700
Sept 2024628
May 2024600
Apr 2024535
Mar 2024580
Feb 2024590
Jan 2024600
Dec 2023515
Oct 2023800
Sept 2023600
Aug 2023525
Jul 2023488
Jun 2023488
May 2023481
Apr 2023481
Mar 2023475
Feb 2023458
Jan 2023456
Dec 2022375
Nov 2022275
Oct 2022550
Sept 2022500
Jul 2022525
Jun 2022442
May 2022500
Apr 2022500
Mar 2022500
Feb 2022475
Jan 2022450
Dec 2021425
Nov 2021425
Oct 2021405
Aug 2021400
Jul 2021400
Jun 2021375
May 2021388
Apr 2021420
Mar 2021393
Feb 2021400
Jan 2021350
Dec 2020358
Nov 2020358
Oct 2020368
Sept 2020363
Aug 2020328
Jul 2020338
Jun 2020340
May 2020343
Apr 2020373
Mar 2020332
Feb 2020332
Jan 2020317
Dec 2019355
Nov 2019325
Oct 2019355
Sept 2019370
Aug 2019380
Jul 2019360
Jun 2019360
May 2019370
Apr 2019300
Mar 2019400
Feb 2019400
Jan 2019400
Dec 2018400
Nov 2018400
Oct 2018387
Sept 2018375
Aug 2018400
Jul 2018397
Jun 2018400
May 2018375
Apr 2018350
Mar 2018347
Feb 2018335
Jan 2018337
Dec 2017337
Nov 2017375
Oct 2017372
Sept 2017375
Aug 2017355
Jul 2017350
Jun 2017355
May 2017353
Apr 2017355
Mar 2017350

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-2014-71-retail-kg.