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Millet in Bourem

Gao, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 15% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

240–482

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

239–554

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

13%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 240 and 482 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 239 and 554 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 13%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Bourem: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 240 and 482 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 239 and 554 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 13%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 915); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 273–432 332 262–468 453 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 252–441 328 218–639 395 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 240–482 326 174–775 372 13%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 244–535 328 203–915 414 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 239–554 326 183–840 409 –
Price history (96 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026338
Jul 2026360
Jun 2026350
May 2026320
Apr 2026260
Mar 2026265
Feb 2026258
Dec 2025475
Oct 2025350
Sept 2025388
Apr 2025430
Dec 2024475
Oct 2024450
Sept 2024520
May 2024400
Apr 2024410
Mar 2024400
Feb 2024400
Jan 2024400
Dec 2023350
Oct 2023375
Sept 2023363
Aug 2023375
Jul 2023400
Jun 2023388
May 2023375
Apr 2023403
Mar 2023430
Feb 2023358
Jan 2023450
Dec 2022300
Nov 2022219
Oct 2022438
Sept 2022475
Jul 2022430
Jun 2022439
May 2022300
Apr 2022270
Mar 2022300
Feb 2022290
Jan 2022300
Dec 2021300
Nov 2021250
Oct 2021188
Aug 2021250
Jul 2021262
Jun 2021225
May 2021205
Apr 2021200
Mar 2021225
Feb 2021225
Jan 2021200
Dec 2020243
Nov 2020243
Oct 2020280
Sept 2020268
Aug 2020292
Jul 2020300
Jun 2020270
May 2020283
Apr 2020288
Mar 2020252
Feb 2020252
Jan 2020245
Dec 2019227
Nov 2019275
Oct 2019242
Sept 2019255
Aug 2019252
Jul 2019262
Jun 2019247
May 2019285
Apr 2019250
Mar 2019265
Feb 2019250
Jan 2019287
Dec 2018250
Nov 2018288
Sept 2018275
Aug 2018300
Jul 2018250
Jun 2018362
May 2018250
Apr 2018250
Mar 2018250
Feb 2018250
Jan 2018207
Dec 2017250
Nov 2017250
Oct 2017200
Sept 2017250
Jul 2017210
Jun 2017245
May 2017238
Apr 2017250
Mar 2017200

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-2014-73-retail-kg.