Staple Signals Français

Home › Mali

Food basket in Bourem

Gao, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,886–5,790

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,872–6,646

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 4,050 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,886 and 5,790 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,872 and 6,646 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Bourem: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 4,050 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,886 and 5,790 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,872 and 6,646 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,0008,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 10,976); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 3,275–5,180 3,983 3,146–5,617
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 3,025–5,292 3,933 2,622–7,665
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,886–5,790 3,911 2,087–9,294
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,931–6,423 3,936 2,436–10,976
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,872–6,646 3,912 2,195–10,080
Cost history (96 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20264,050
Jul 20264,320
Jun 20264,200
May 20263,840
Apr 20263,120
Mar 20263,180
Feb 20263,090
Dec 20255,700
Oct 20254,200
Sept 20254,650
Apr 20255,160
Dec 20245,700
Oct 20245,400
Sept 20246,240
May 20244,800
Apr 20244,920
Mar 20244,800
Feb 20244,800
Jan 20244,800
Dec 20234,200
Oct 20234,500
Sept 20234,356
Aug 20234,500
Jul 20234,800
Jun 20234,656
May 20234,500
Apr 20234,836
Mar 20235,160
Feb 20234,296
Jan 20235,400
Dec 20223,600
Nov 20222,628
Oct 20225,256
Sept 20225,700
Jul 20225,160
Jun 20225,270
May 20223,600
Apr 20223,240
Mar 20223,600
Feb 20223,480
Jan 20223,600
Dec 20213,600
Nov 20213,000
Oct 20212,250
Aug 20213,000
Jul 20213,144
Jun 20212,700
May 20212,460
Apr 20212,400
Mar 20212,700
Feb 20212,700
Jan 20212,400
Dec 20202,916
Nov 20202,916
Oct 20203,360
Sept 20203,216
Aug 20203,510
Jul 20203,600
Jun 20203,240
May 20203,396
Apr 20203,456
Mar 20203,024
Feb 20203,024
Jan 20202,940
Dec 20192,724
Nov 20193,300
Oct 20192,904
Sept 20193,060
Aug 20193,024
Jul 20193,144
Jun 20192,964
May 20193,420
Apr 20193,000
Mar 20193,180
Feb 20193,000
Jan 20193,444
Dec 20183,000
Nov 20183,450
Sept 20183,300
Aug 20183,600
Jul 20183,000
Jun 20184,344
May 20183,000
Apr 20183,000
Mar 20183,000
Feb 20183,000
Jan 20182,484
Dec 20173,000
Nov 20173,000
Oct 20172,400
Sept 20173,000
Jul 20172,520
Jun 20172,940
May 20172,856
Apr 20173,000
Mar 20172,400

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189