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Rice (local) in Forgho

Gao, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 25% below the usual level for that time of year.

Irregular reports. This market published a price in 4 of the last 12 months. Prices here can change more, for example through insecurity or road closures; the forecast range is wider accordingly. In past tests, the 80 % range for next month held in 81% of cases in markets that report irregularly, against 77% in markets that report regularly.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

434–909

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

393–974

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

16%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 25% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 434 and 909 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 393 and 974 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 16%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Forgho: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 25% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 434 and 909 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 393 and 974 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 16%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).02505007501,0001,250202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 2,142); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 464–707 512 450–713 727 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 462–741 514 439–862 751 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 434–909 514 389–1,616 683 16%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 417–860 511 400–1,483 636 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 393–974 496 349–2,142 603 –
Price history (90 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026500
Apr 2026570
Feb 2026565
Dec 2025650
Aug 2025650
May 2025660
Apr 2025700
Mar 2025700
Dec 2024650
Oct 2024805
Sept 2024650
May 2024675
Apr 2024620
Feb 2024470
Jan 2024462
Dec 2023450
Oct 2023750
Sept 2023675
Aug 2023525
Jul 2023550
Jun 2023500
May 2023500
Mar 2023450
Feb 2023390
Jan 2023444
Dec 2022413
Oct 2022460
Sept 2022585
Aug 2022575
Jul 2022550
Jun 2022633
May 2022510
Apr 2022540
Mar 2022425
Jan 2022470
Dec 2021500
Nov 2021523
Sept 2021492
Jul 2021508
Jun 2021463
May 2021475
Apr 2021451
Mar 2021440
Feb 2021403
Jan 2021405
Dec 2020443
Nov 2020443
Oct 2020468
Sept 2020450
Aug 2020430
Jul 2020400
Jun 2020400
May 2020400
Apr 2020398
Mar 2020348
Feb 2020340
Jan 2020325
Dec 2019390
Nov 2019390
Oct 2019390
Sept 2019392
Aug 2019397
Jul 2019392
Jun 2019392
May 2019392
Mar 2019350
Feb 2019340
Jan 2019392
Dec 2018322
Nov 2018392
Oct 2018393
Sept 2018372
Aug 2018355
Jul 2018352
Jun 2018365
May 2018355
Apr 2018332
Mar 2018317
Feb 2018367
Jan 2018307
Dec 2017330
Nov 2017360
Oct 2017437
Sept 2017430
Aug 2017452
Jul 2017430
Jun 2017430
May 2017423
Apr 2017418
Mar 2017412

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-2016-71-retail-kg.