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Millet in Forgho

Gao, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 1% above the usual level for that time of year.

Irregular reports. This market published a price in 6 of the last 12 months. Prices here can change more, for example through insecurity or road closures; the forecast range is wider accordingly. In past tests, the 80 % range for next month held in 81% of cases in markets that report irregularly, against 77% in markets that report regularly.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

369–699

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

371–866

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

32%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was at the usual level for that time of year (normal). For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 369 and 699 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 371 and 866 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 32%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Forgho: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was at the usual level for that time of year (normal). For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 369 and 699 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 371 and 866 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 32%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).02505007501,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 1,468); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 447–675 544 380–728 537 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 413–694 524 336–775 514 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 369–699 492 302–779 462 32%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 373–786 525 270–1,093 520 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 371–866 498 301–1,468 478 –
Price history (92 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026545
Jul 2026500
Jun 2026625
Apr 2026400
Feb 2026475
Dec 2025500
Aug 2025500
May 2025450
Apr 2025450
Mar 2025500
Dec 2024500
Oct 2024505
Sept 2024420
May 2024400
Apr 2024448
Feb 2024350
Jan 2024350
Dec 2023350
Oct 2023400
Sept 2023400
Aug 2023400
Jul 2023400
Jun 2023400
May 2023400
Mar 2023375
Feb 2023235
Jan 2023431
Dec 2022425
Nov 2022276
Oct 2022358
Sept 2022450
Aug 2022458
Jul 2022433
Jun 2022400
May 2022308
Apr 2022394
Mar 2022298
Jan 2022295
Dec 2021320
Nov 2021278
Sept 2021258
Jul 2021255
Jun 2021238
May 2021245
Apr 2021240
Mar 2021213
Feb 2021226
Jan 2021222
Dec 2020245
Nov 2020245
Oct 2020250
Sept 2020300
Aug 2020289
Jul 2020250
Jun 2020250
May 2020275
Apr 2020250
Mar 2020246
Feb 2020195
Jan 2020210
Dec 2019212
Nov 2019202
Oct 2019200
Sept 2019245
Aug 2019225
Jul 2019207
Jun 2019207
May 2019216
Apr 2019242
Mar 2019212
Feb 2019214
Jan 2019252
Dec 2018250
Nov 2018252
Oct 2018257
Sept 2018256
Aug 2018255
Jul 2018250
Jun 2018267
May 2018257
Apr 2018255
Mar 2018261
Feb 2018250
Dec 2017250
Nov 2017250
Oct 2017250
Sept 2017291
Jul 2017250
Jun 2017253
May 2017250
Apr 2017210
Mar 2017219

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-2016-73-retail-kg.