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Food basket in Forgho

Gao, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

4,423–8,383

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

4,452–10,387

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 6,540 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 4,423 and 8,383 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 4,452 and 10,387 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Forgho: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 6,540 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 4,423 and 8,383 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 4,452 and 10,387 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 17,619); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 5,370–8,102 6,528 4,564–8,734
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 4,956–8,327 6,289 4,027–9,302
Nov 2026
Next month		 4,423–8,383 5,905 3,622–9,351
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 4,482–9,435 6,298 3,242–13,118
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 4,452–10,387 5,980 3,617–17,619
Cost history (92 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20266,540
Jul 20266,000
Jun 20267,500
Apr 20264,800
Feb 20265,700
Dec 20256,000
Aug 20256,000
May 20255,400
Apr 20255,400
Mar 20256,000
Dec 20246,000
Oct 20246,060
Sept 20245,040
May 20244,800
Apr 20245,370
Feb 20244,200
Jan 20244,200
Dec 20234,200
Oct 20234,800
Sept 20234,800
Aug 20234,800
Jul 20234,800
Jun 20234,800
May 20234,800
Mar 20234,500
Feb 20232,820
Jan 20235,175
Dec 20225,100
Nov 20223,312
Oct 20224,296
Sept 20225,400
Aug 20225,496
Jul 20225,196
Jun 20224,800
May 20223,696
Apr 20224,728
Mar 20223,576
Jan 20223,540
Dec 20213,840
Nov 20213,336
Sept 20213,096
Jul 20213,060
Jun 20212,856
May 20212,940
Apr 20212,880
Mar 20212,556
Feb 20212,712
Jan 20212,664
Dec 20202,940
Nov 20202,940
Oct 20203,000
Sept 20203,600
Aug 20203,465
Jul 20203,000
Jun 20203,000
May 20203,300
Apr 20203,000
Mar 20202,952
Feb 20202,340
Jan 20202,520
Dec 20192,544
Nov 20192,430
Oct 20192,400
Sept 20192,940
Aug 20192,700
Jul 20192,484
Jun 20192,484
May 20192,592
Apr 20192,904
Mar 20192,544
Feb 20192,568
Jan 20193,024
Dec 20183,000
Nov 20183,030
Oct 20183,084
Sept 20183,072
Aug 20183,060
Jul 20183,000
Jun 20183,204
May 20183,084
Apr 20183,060
Mar 20183,132
Feb 20183,000
Dec 20173,000
Nov 20173,000
Oct 20173,000
Sept 20173,492
Jul 20173,000
Jun 20173,036
May 20173,000
Apr 20172,520
Mar 20172,628

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189