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Rice (imported) in Haoussa Foulane

Gao, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 8% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

492–647

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

461–724

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

9%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 492 and 647 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 461 and 724 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 9%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Haoussa Foulane: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 492 and 647 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 461 and 724 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 9%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 1,124); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 510–615 548 502–622 641 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 504–640 550 476–688 648 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 492–647 548 433–750 594 9%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 488–699 549 423–924 634 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 461–724 545 376–1,124 595 –
Price history (97 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026550
Jul 2026540
Jun 2026550
Apr 2026500
Mar 2026500
Feb 2026520
Dec 2025663
Oct 2025635
Sept 2025625
Aug 2025620
Apr 2025650
Dec 2024663
Oct 2024700
Sept 2024691
May 2024670
Feb 2024690
Jan 2024540
Dec 2023618
Oct 2023690
Sept 2023600
Aug 2023500
Jul 2023500
Jun 2023493
May 2023500
Apr 2023500
Mar 2023500
Feb 2023450
Jan 2023480
Dec 2022490
Nov 2022470
Oct 2022462
Sept 2022540
Aug 2022490
Jul 2022465
Jun 2022480
May 2022455
Apr 2022430
Mar 2022455
Feb 2022470
Jan 2022425
Dec 2021425
Nov 2021413
Oct 2021430
Sept 2021413
Aug 2021428
Jul 2021420
Jun 2021415
May 2021375
Apr 2021423
Mar 2021410
Feb 2021400
Jan 2021400
Dec 2020423
Nov 2020423
Oct 2020448
Sept 2020415
Aug 2020405
Jul 2020398
Jun 2020396
Apr 2020400
Mar 2020375
Feb 2020375
Jan 2020380
Dec 2019400
Nov 2019400
Oct 2019400
Sept 2019400
Aug 2019400
Jul 2019400
Jun 2019395
May 2019400
Apr 2019400
Mar 2019400
Feb 2019400
Jan 2019392
Dec 2018375
Nov 2018392
Oct 2018400
Sept 2018400
Aug 2018400
Jul 2018400
Jun 2018395
May 2018390
Apr 2018387
Mar 2018400
Feb 2018400
Jan 2018400
Dec 2017390
Nov 2017400
Oct 2017392
Sept 2017400
Aug 2017404
Jul 2017398
Jun 2017395
May 2017398
Apr 2017380
Mar 2017383

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-2017-64-retail-kg.