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Rice (local) in Haoussa Foulane

Gao, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 8% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

492–859

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

340–913

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

20%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 492 and 859 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 340 and 913 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 20%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Haoussa Foulane: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 492 and 859 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 340 and 913 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 20%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).02505007501,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 1,686); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 545–684 596 534–685 680 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 527–777 598 455–875 692 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 492–859 598 395–1,133 635 20%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 423–912 546 253–1,686 575 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 340–913 519 154–1,664 541 –
Price history (93 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026600
Jul 2026600
Jun 2026555
Apr 2026500
Mar 2026475
Feb 2026470
Dec 2025602
Oct 2025675
Sept 2025700
Aug 2025700
Apr 2025700
Dec 2024602
Oct 2024725
Sept 2024720
May 2024580
Feb 2024500
Jan 2024472
Dec 2023442
Oct 2023713
Sept 2023592
Aug 2023500
Jul 2023500
Jun 2023475
May 2023500
Apr 2023500
Mar 2023500
Feb 2023400
Jan 2023375
Dec 2022350
Nov 2022500
Oct 2022500
Sept 2022520
Aug 2022600
Jul 2022505
Jun 2022482
May 2022468
Apr 2022450
Mar 2022500
Feb 2022495
Jan 2022450
Dec 2021450
Nov 2021475
Oct 2021480
Sept 2021475
Aug 2021450
Jul 2021442
Jun 2021475
Apr 2021446
Mar 2021433
Feb 2021400
Jan 2021400
Dec 2020443
Nov 2020443
Oct 2020458
Sept 2020443
Aug 2020414
Jul 2020390
Jun 2020372
May 2020385
Apr 2020350
Mar 2020350
Feb 2020350
Jan 2020320
Dec 2019400
Nov 2019400
Oct 2019400
Sept 2019400
Aug 2019387
Jul 2019352
Jun 2019355
May 2019352
Mar 2019327
Feb 2019332
Dec 2018320
Nov 2018412
Oct 2018400
Sept 2018400
Aug 2018400
Jun 2018390
May 2018355
Apr 2018327
Mar 2018357
Feb 2018375
Jan 2018327
Dec 2017332
Oct 2017407
Sept 2017412
Aug 2017457
Jul 2017420
Jun 2017428
May 2017425
Apr 2017400
Mar 2017388

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-2017-71-retail-kg.