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Millet in Haoussa Foulane

Gao, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 27% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

266–521

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

250–557

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

9%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 266 and 521 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 250 and 557 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 9%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Haoussa Foulane: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 266 and 521 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 250 and 557 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 9%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 1,026); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 281–409 318 270–495 456 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 274–434 319 269–588 448 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 266–521 321 242–855 444 9%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 263–553 322 242–1,026 466 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 250–557 320 210–858 466 –
Price history (96 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026308
Jul 2026370
Jun 2026305
Apr 2026310
Mar 2026360
Feb 2026420
Dec 2025444
Oct 2025385
Sept 2025417
Aug 2025400
Apr 2025450
Dec 2024444
Oct 2024421
Sept 2024462
May 2024410
Feb 2024383
Jan 2024388
Dec 2023400
Oct 2023392
Sept 2023425
Aug 2023400
Jul 2023375
Jun 2023365
May 2023400
Apr 2023400
Mar 2023400
Feb 2023400
Jan 2023388
Dec 2022400
Nov 2022445
Oct 2022410
Sept 2022440
Aug 2022417
Jul 2022405
Jun 2022375
May 2022400
Apr 2022360
Mar 2022350
Feb 2022375
Jan 2022260
Dec 2021333
Nov 2021255
Oct 2021250
Sept 2021250
Aug 2021250
Jul 2021240
Jun 2021250
May 2021250
Apr 2021275
Mar 2021247
Feb 2021265
Jan 2021245
Dec 2020256
Nov 2020256
Oct 2020255
Sept 2020223
Aug 2020270
Jul 2020242
Jun 2020251
May 2020260
Apr 2020250
Mar 2020200
Feb 2020200
Jan 2020315
Dec 2019196
Nov 2019200
Oct 2019200
Sept 2019200
Aug 2019200
Jul 2019196
Jun 2019196
May 2019194
Apr 2019225
Mar 2019250
Feb 2019250
Jan 2019250
Dec 2018250
Nov 2018250
Oct 2018250
Sept 2018250
Aug 2018250
Jul 2018250
Jun 2018256
May 2018255
Apr 2018250
Mar 2018250
Feb 2018250
Jan 2018236
Nov 2017250
Oct 2017257
Sept 2017250
Jul 2017262
Jun 2017246
May 2017247
Apr 2017225
Mar 2017200

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-2017-73-retail-kg.