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Food basket in Haoussa Foulane

Gao, Mali · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet.

Not included: pulses, cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

3,193–6,250

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,997–6,685

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,690 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,193 and 6,250 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,997 and 6,685 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Haoussa Foulane: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet) cost about 3,690 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,193 and 6,250 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,997 and 6,685 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: pulses, cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,0008,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 12,312); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 3,366–4,913 3,816 3,243–5,936
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 3,292–5,211 3,827 3,231–7,058
Nov 2026
Next month		 3,193–6,250 3,849 2,909–10,257
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 3,161–6,635 3,862 2,906–12,312
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,997–6,685 3,846 2,524–10,295
Cost history (96 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 20263,690
Jul 20264,440
Jun 20263,660
Apr 20263,720
Mar 20264,320
Feb 20265,040
Dec 20255,328
Oct 20254,620
Sept 20255,000
Aug 20254,800
Apr 20255,400
Dec 20245,328
Oct 20245,052
Sept 20245,544
May 20244,920
Feb 20244,600
Jan 20244,650
Dec 20234,800
Oct 20234,704
Sept 20235,100
Aug 20234,800
Jul 20234,500
Jun 20234,380
May 20234,800
Apr 20234,800
Mar 20234,800
Feb 20234,800
Jan 20234,650
Dec 20224,800
Nov 20225,340
Oct 20224,920
Sept 20225,280
Aug 20225,004
Jul 20224,860
Jun 20224,500
May 20224,800
Apr 20224,320
Mar 20224,200
Feb 20224,500
Jan 20223,120
Dec 20213,996
Nov 20213,060
Oct 20213,000
Sept 20213,000
Aug 20213,000
Jul 20212,880
Jun 20213,000
May 20213,000
Apr 20213,300
Mar 20212,964
Feb 20213,180
Jan 20212,940
Dec 20203,072
Nov 20203,072
Oct 20203,060
Sept 20202,676
Aug 20203,235
Jul 20202,904
Jun 20203,012
May 20203,120
Apr 20203,000
Mar 20202,400
Feb 20202,400
Jan 20203,780
Dec 20192,352
Nov 20192,400
Oct 20192,400
Sept 20192,400
Aug 20192,400
Jul 20192,352
Jun 20192,352
May 20192,328
Apr 20192,700
Mar 20193,000
Feb 20193,000
Jan 20193,000
Dec 20183,000
Nov 20183,000
Oct 20183,000
Sept 20183,000
Aug 20183,000
Jul 20183,000
Jun 20183,072
May 20183,060
Apr 20183,000
Mar 20183,000
Feb 20183,000
Jan 20182,832
Nov 20173,000
Oct 20173,084
Sept 20173,000
Jul 20173,150
Jun 20172,952
May 20172,964
Apr 20172,700
Mar 20172,400

Track record of the basket forecasts in Mali

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 77% 92% 4% 2,201
Estimate (this month) 76% 92% 7% 2,200
Next month 75% 93% 11% 2,205
In 2 months 74% 94% 16% 2,188
In 3 months 73% 94% 19% 2,189