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Rice (imported) in Menaka

Gao, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal July 2026: 1% above the usual level for that time of year.

Irregular reports. This market published a price in 8 of the last 12 months. Prices here can change more, for example through insecurity or road closures; the forecast range is wider accordingly. In past tests, the 80 % range for next month held in 81% of cases in markets that report irregularly, against 77% in markets that report regularly.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

556–930

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

549–1,045

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

20%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In July 2026 the price was at the usual level for that time of year (normal). For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 556 and 930 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 549 and 1,045 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 20%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Menaka: XOF per KGIn July 2026 the price was at the usual level for that time of year (normal). For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 556 and 930 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 549 and 1,045 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 20%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05001,0001,500202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season
  • Data error: a value that jumped and reversed; not used by the model

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 1,604); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 601–824 685 593–950 754 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 592–906 692 592–1,334 738 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 556–930 687 483–1,414 685 20%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 577–971 688 539–1,256 749 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 549–1,045 678 510–1,604 726 –
Price history (91 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Jul 2026696
May 2026692
Mar 2026630
Feb 2026660
Jan 2026704
Dec 2025780
Oct 2025370Data error
Sept 2025764
May 2025780
Jan 2025840
Dec 2024780
Sept 2024924
May 2024800
Apr 2024640
Feb 2024965
Dec 2023750
Oct 2023850
Sept 2023600
Aug 2023600
Jul 2023600
Jun 2023600
May 2023550
Apr 2023600
Mar 2023500
Feb 2023500
Jan 2023500
Dec 2022500
Nov 2022500
Oct 2022500
Sept 2022500
Aug 2022500
Jul 2022500
Jun 2022500
May 2022500
Apr 2022500
Mar 2022500
Feb 2022520
Jan 2022527
Dec 2021520
Nov 2021500
Oct 2021500
Sept 2021480
Aug 2021510
Jul 2021530
Jun 2021500
May 2021510
Apr 2021495
Mar 2021450
Feb 2021475
Jan 2021470
Dec 2020450
Nov 2020450
Jul 2020500
Jun 2020500
May 2020490
Apr 2020505
Mar 2020500
Feb 2020445
Jan 2020450
Dec 2019425
Nov 2019430
Oct 2019430
Sept 2019435
Jul 2019435
Jun 2019430
May 2019420
Apr 2019420
Mar 2019425
Feb 2019425
Jan 2019470
Dec 2018470
Nov 2018470
Oct 2018470
Sept 2018470
Aug 2018470
Jul 2018430
Jun 2018425
May 2018425
Apr 2018500
Mar 2018500
Feb 2018500
Jan 2018424
Dec 2017500
Nov 2017464
Oct 2017455
Sept 2017510
Aug 2017490
Jun 2017470
May 2017490
Apr 2017460
Mar 2017475

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: July 2026. Series id: mali-2018-64-retail-kg.