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Rice (imported) in Taboye

Gao, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 9% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

475–651

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

459–771

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 475 and 651 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 459 and 771 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Taboye: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 475 and 651 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 459 and 771 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).02004006008001,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 1,228); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 503–633 557 484–657 674 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 500–673 563 470–704 696 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 475–651 549 396–699 622 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 481–703 555 435–835 660 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 459–771 550 395–1,228 635 –
Price history (89 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026560
Jul 2026530
Jun 2026580
May 2026530
Apr 2026498
Mar 2026445
Feb 2026500
Dec 2025685
Oct 2025542
Aug 2025540
Apr 2025600
Dec 2024685
Oct 2024750
Sept 2024710
May 2024645
Apr 2024635
Feb 2024630
Jan 2024650
Dec 2023665
Oct 2023810
Sept 2023625
Aug 2023575
Jul 2023500
Jun 2023550
May 2023500
Apr 2023450
Mar 2023490
Feb 2023490
Jan 2023492
Nov 2022500
Oct 2022500
Sept 2022500
Aug 2022500
Jul 2022500
Jun 2022500
May 2022500
Apr 2022450
Mar 2022500
Feb 2022475
Jan 2022450
Dec 2021425
Nov 2021425
Oct 2021480
Aug 2021438
Jul 2021437
Jun 2021438
May 2021438
Apr 2021430
Mar 2021400
Feb 2021438
Jan 2021400
Dec 2020400
Nov 2020400
Oct 2020448
Sept 2020425
Aug 2020400
Jul 2020400
Jun 2020413
May 2020403
Apr 2020400
Mar 2020387
Feb 2020375
Jan 2020375
Dec 2019355
Nov 2019375
Oct 2019362
Sept 2019375
Aug 2019375
Jul 2019375
Jun 2019375
May 2019375
Apr 2019377
Mar 2019390
Jan 2019375
Dec 2018375
Nov 2018375
Sept 2018387
Aug 2018397
Jul 2018400
May 2018400
Apr 2018400
Mar 2018400
Feb 2018367
Jan 2018350
Dec 2017370
Nov 2017400
Oct 2017400
Jul 2017312
May 2017400

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-2021-64-retail-kg.