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Rice (local) in Taboye

Gao, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 8% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

460–798

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

422–941

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

20%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 8% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 460 and 798 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 422 and 941 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 20%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Taboye: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 8% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 460 and 798 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 422 and 941 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 20%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).02505007501,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 1,796); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 527–658 583 505–713 665 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 517–740 589 442–780 721 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 460–798 567 374–1,122 577 20%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 465–858 580 383–1,238 639 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 422–941 569 308–1,796 611 –
Price history (84 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026590
Jul 2026600
Jun 2026555
May 2026545
Apr 2026458
Mar 2026480
Feb 2026560
Dec 2025670
Oct 2025660
Aug 2025700
Apr 2025660
Dec 2024670
Oct 2024695
Sept 2024700
May 2024640
Apr 2024610
Feb 2024485
Jan 2024480
Dec 2023490
Oct 2023830
Sept 2023581
Aug 2023585
Jul 2023600
Jun 2023525
May 2023500
Apr 2023497
Mar 2023450
Feb 2023450
Jan 2023452
Nov 2022295
Jul 2022500
Jun 2022496
May 2022500
Apr 2022475
Mar 2022500
Feb 2022475
Jan 2022450
Dec 2021425
Nov 2021425
Aug 2021433
Jul 2021400
Jun 2021400
May 2021400
Apr 2021398
Mar 2021400
Feb 2021400
Jan 2021410
Dec 2020360
Nov 2020360
Oct 2020375
Sept 2020368
Aug 2020368
Jul 2020368
Jun 2020360
May 2020350
Apr 2020388
Mar 2020362
Feb 2020350
Jan 2020350
Dec 2019400
Nov 2019400
Oct 2019400
Sept 2019400
Aug 2019400
Jul 2019400
Jun 2019400
May 2019400
Mar 2019400
Jan 2019400
Dec 2018400
Nov 2018400
Sept 2018377
Aug 2018370
Jul 2018370
May 2018400
Apr 2018390
Mar 2018350
Feb 2018340
Jan 2018332
Dec 2017327
Nov 2017367
Oct 2017372
Jul 2017352
May 2017350

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-2021-71-retail-kg.