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Rice (imported) in Douentza

Mopti, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 13% below the usual level for that time of year.

Irregular reports. This market published a price in 8 of the last 12 months. Prices here can change more, for example through insecurity or road closures; the forecast range is wider accordingly. In past tests, the 80 % range for next month held in 81% of cases in markets that report irregularly, against 77% in markets that report regularly.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

474–590

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

461–603

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 4% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 474 and 590 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 461 and 603 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Douentza: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 4% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 474 and 590 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 461 and 603 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 485–564 502 467–602 590 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 479–577 502 473–641 591 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 474–590 504 418–634 609 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 466–593 504 406–596 602 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 461–603 501 416–688 608 –
Price history (93 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026500
Jul 2026525
Jun 2026500
May 2026520
Apr 2026520
Mar 2026565
Feb 2026580
Sept 2025555
Aug 2025530
May 2025585
Apr 2025600
Jan 2025500
Sept 2024595
May 2024522
Apr 2024460
Mar 2024465
Feb 2024475
Oct 2023488
Sept 2023500
Aug 2023500
Jul 2023500
Jun 2023500
May 2023500
Apr 2023500
Feb 2023500
Jan 2023500
Dec 2022500
Nov 2022500
Oct 2022500
Sept 2022500
Aug 2022500
Jul 2022500
Jun 2022500
May 2022500
Apr 2022500
Mar 2022500
Feb 2022500
Jan 2022500
Dec 2021500
Nov 2021500
Oct 2021500
Sept 2021400
Jun 2021400
May 2021400
Apr 2021400
Mar 2021400
Feb 2021400
Dec 2020400
Nov 2020400
Oct 2020400
Sept 2020400
Aug 2020400
Jul 2020400
Jun 2020400
May 2020400
Apr 2020400
Mar 2020400
Feb 2020400
Jan 2020400
Dec 2019400
Nov 2019400
Oct 2019362
Sept 2019362
Aug 2019360
Jul 2019380
Jun 2019362
May 2019375
Apr 2019350
Mar 2019350
Feb 2019350
Jan 2019375
Dec 2018350
Nov 2018375
Oct 2018350
Sept 2018375
Aug 2018375
Jul 2018360
Jun 2018375
May 2018352
Apr 2018350
Mar 2018350
Feb 2018350
Jan 2018350
Dec 2017350
Nov 2017350
Oct 2017350
Sept 2017350
Aug 2017350
Jul 2017350
Jun 2017350
May 2017355
Apr 2017356
Mar 2017350

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-2026-64-retail-kg.