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Rice (local) in Douentza

Mopti, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 7% below the usual level for that time of year.

Irregular reports. This market published a price in 8 of the last 12 months. Prices here can change more, for example through insecurity or road closures; the forecast range is wider accordingly. In past tests, the 80 % range for next month held in 81% of cases in markets that report irregularly, against 77% in markets that report regularly.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

427–508

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

413–597

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 5% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 427 and 508 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 413 and 597 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Douentza: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 5% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 137 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 427 and 508 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 413 and 597 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 887); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 434–495 449 427–534 503 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 425–507 449 397–556 490 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 427–508 450 408–524 507 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 421–537 450 389–611 514 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 413–597 448 384–887 526 –
Price history (92 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026450
Jul 2026425
Jun 2026450
May 2026472
Apr 2026475
Mar 2026468
Feb 2026490
Sept 2025478
Aug 2025458
May 2025482
Apr 2025558
Jan 2025540
Sept 2024542
May 2024470
Apr 2024500
Mar 2024500
Feb 2024500
Oct 2023450
Sept 2023460
Aug 2023450
Jul 2023450
Jun 2023450
May 2023450
Apr 2023450
Feb 2023450
Jan 2023450
Dec 2022450
Nov 2022450
Oct 2022450
Sept 2022450
Aug 2022450
Jul 2022450
Jun 2022450
May 2022475
Apr 2022450
Mar 2022450
Feb 2022450
Jan 2022450
Dec 2021450
Nov 2021450
Oct 2021450
Sept 2021400
Jun 2021400
May 2021400
Apr 2021400
Mar 2021400
Feb 2021400
Dec 2020400
Nov 2020400
Oct 2020400
Sept 2020400
Aug 2020400
Jul 2020400
Jun 2020400
May 2020400
Apr 2020400
Mar 2020400
Feb 2020400
Jan 2020400
Dec 2019400
Nov 2019400
Oct 2019400
Sept 2019400
Aug 2019400
Jul 2019407
Jun 2019405
May 2019415
Mar 2019400
Feb 2019400
Jan 2019400
Dec 2018400
Nov 2018400
Oct 2018350
Sept 2018400
Aug 2018400
Jul 2018400
Jun 2018400
May 2018401
Apr 2018400
Mar 2018400
Feb 2018400
Jan 2018400
Dec 2017410
Nov 2017378
Oct 2017350
Sept 2017360
Aug 2017340
Jul 2017346
Jun 2017344
May 2017358
Apr 2017378
Mar 2017377

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-2026-71-retail-kg.