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Millet in Douentza

Mopti, Mali · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 28% below the usual level for that time of year.

Irregular reports. This market published a price in 8 of the last 12 months. Prices here can change more, for example through insecurity or road closures; the forecast range is wider accordingly. In past tests, the 80 % range for next month held in 81% of cases in markets that report irregularly, against 77% in markets that report regularly.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

176–406

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

196–450

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

8%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 28% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 32% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 176 and 406 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 196 and 450 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Douentza: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 28% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 32% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 81 markets in Mali, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 176 and 406 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 196 and 450 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 694); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 253–399 305 206–567 437 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 224–414 302 176–594 416 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 176–406 268 98–655 337 8%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 172–427 273 97.3–694 358 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 196–450 288 149–630 392 –
Price history (92 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026300
Jul 2026300
Jun 2026200
May 2026227
Apr 2026335
Mar 2026265
Feb 2026345
Sept 2025362
Aug 2025338
May 2025372
Apr 2025394
Jan 2025350
Sept 2024395
May 2024260
Apr 2024280
Mar 2024280
Feb 2024268
Oct 2023350
Sept 2023350
Aug 2023350
Jul 2023375
Jun 2023400
May 2023375
Apr 2023375
Feb 2023367
Jan 2023400
Dec 2022400
Nov 2022300
Oct 2022450
Sept 2022600
Aug 2022600
Jul 2022500
Jun 2022450
May 2022400
Apr 2022400
Mar 2022375
Feb 2022300
Jan 2022300
Dec 2021300
Nov 2021300
Oct 2021300
Sept 2021300
Jun 2021300
May 2021250
Apr 2021250
Mar 2021250
Feb 2021313
Dec 2020158
Nov 2020158
Oct 2020198
Sept 2020225
Aug 2020225
Jul 2020190
Jun 2020185
May 2020190
Apr 2020185
Mar 2020185
Feb 2020185
Jan 2020177
Dec 2019185
Nov 2019185
Oct 2019185
Sept 2019185
Aug 2019225
Jul 2019185
Jun 2019187
May 2019225
Apr 2019185
Mar 2019185
Feb 2019185
Jan 2019205
Dec 2018185
Nov 2018205
Oct 2018260
Sept 2018260
Aug 2018255
Jul 2018225
Jun 2018255
May 2018225
Apr 2018222
Mar 2018207
Feb 2018194
Jan 2018187
Dec 2017189
Nov 2017160
Oct 2017225
Sept 2017225
Jul 2017220
Jun 2017220
May 2017211
Apr 2017183
Mar 2017175

Track record in Mali

How past forecasts for Mali did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Mali
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 3% better than the base rate 10,661
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 6% better than the base rate 10,596
Next month 74% 94% 9% worse than the base rate 10,590
In 2 months 74% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 10,553
In 3 months 74% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 10,599

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: mali-2026-73-retail-kg.